Sugar Prices Break Below Key Levels – Market Slumps Toward 460 USD/t
On 5 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures extended losses sharply, with the August 2025 contract falling by 1.04% to USD 463.30/t (EUR 430.87/t) – the lowest close since January 2024. Pressure from oversupply, weak import demand and bearish technical momentum continues to weigh on the market. European spot prices remain stuck, with no signs of rebound.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (05.06.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 463.30 | -1.04% | 430.87 |
| Oct 25 | 461.70 | -0.93% | 429.38 |
| Dec 25 | 464.10 | -0.84% | 431.61 |
| Mar 26 | 470.60 | -0.79% | 437.66 |
| May 26 | 472.30 | -0.61% | 439.24 |
| Aug 26 | 473.00 | -0.42% | 439.89 |
(Umrechnungskurs: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Price Floor Cracking
📉 Spot FCA prices in the EU remain under downward pressure at EUR 0.51–0.53/kg.
📦 Eastern European suppliers and brokers report growing interest at EUR 0.50/kg, as surplus volumes mount.
🧊 Some producers in Western Europe are rumoured to have halted forward quoting due to cost-structure mismatch.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 05.06.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.431 | New multi-month low |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.51–0.53 | Sliding further under factory pressure |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Stable for now |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Remains most competitive |
🌍 Market Pressure Points
- 🌾 Brazil & India export activity continues to ramp up
- 💱 Strength in USD keeps pressure on emerging market import demand
- 📉 Technical selling accelerates as key support zones are broken
- 🧮 EU demand remains flat – sweetener competition rising in the processing industry
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (6–8 June 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 6 June | 458 – 468 | 426 – 435 |
| 7 June | 455 – 465 | 423 – 433 |
| 8 June | 452 – 462 | 420 – 430 |
📌 Outlook:
Prices are in free fall unless buyers step in or harvest issues emerge.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 The sugar market is under heavy structural pressure.
📦 EU sellers are forced to chase buyers with aggressive pricing.
📊 Downtrend now fully confirmed – sentiment bearish.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Secure Q3 volumes below EUR 0.52/kg where possible.
- 📦 Sellers: Focus on volume, avoid waiting for a rebound.
- 📊 Traders: Consider momentum trades – next support around USD 455/t.
📍 Summary:
New lows and no floor in sight – ICE sugar faces a deeply bearish environment, with European mills in defensive mode.