📉 Sugar Prices Collapse Further – Downtrend Accelerates Despite EU Price Firmness
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures experienced a steep decline on 9 April 2025. The May 2025 contract fell by 1.93% to USD 513.30/t (EUR 477.37/t), while contracts for later delivery lost up to 2.5%. Despite the continuing global weakness, EU producers have not adjusted their spot offers, which remain at EUR 0.53–0.56/kg FCA. The discrepancy between global and EU pricing widens further – raising questions among buyers and traders alike.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (09.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 513.30 | -1.93% | 477.37 |
| Aug 25 | 498.80 | -2.47% | 463.88 |
| Oct 25 | 494.20 | -2.49% | 459.61 |
| Dec 25 | 492.60 | -2.29% | 458.12 |
| Mar 26 | 493.60 | -2.15% | 459.05 |
| May 26 | 491.40 | -1.85% | 457.00 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Analysis & Commentary
📉 Accelerating Sell-Off Across Contracts
– The market experienced broad-based losses, with August and October contracts hit hardest.
– No fundamental trigger – weakness is driven by liquidation and absence of buying.
🇪🇺 EU Market Static and Detached
– Despite global pressure, EU producers keep offers high: EUR 0.53–0.56/kg FCA.
– Buyers remain hesitant; forward offers at EUR 0.60+/kg face resistance.
🛍️ Retail Reality Continues to Undermine Market Logic
– Eastern European shelf prices remain below EUR 0.42/kg, further highlighting the disconnect.
– EU tariff protection stabilises internal prices, but consumer confidence suffers.
🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 09.04.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) | Note/Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Edeka | 0.69 € | Promotional price (last verified 05.04.) |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € | Standard shelf price |
| Austria | SPAR | 1.58 € | 0.79 €/500 g Staubzucker |
| Czech Rep. | Kaufland | 0.50 € | With Kaufland Card |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € | Promotional offer |
| UK | Tesco | 0.96 € | £0.82 Aldi Price Match |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.79 € | Bonus price |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (10–12 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr | 508 – 518 | 472 – 481 |
| 11 Apr | 505 – 515 | 470 – 479 |
| 12 Apr | 500 – 510 | 465 – 474 |
📌 Outlook:
Bearish sentiment persists. Without bullish news, downside potential remains the dominant force.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Recommendations
✅ Global sugar prices continue to decline – technical pressure accelerates.
❌ EU producers maintain firm pricing – buyers remain sceptical.
📉 Retail prices show real market conditions – and they point down.
📌 Strategy:
- 🛒 Buyers: Use global market weakness to renegotiate – EU prices are unjustified.
- 📦 Sellers: Volume-based contracts only; resist raising forward offers.
- 📊 Traders: Technical support at USD 510/t (EUR 474/t) must hold – or further losses likely.
📍 Conclusion: World market signals weakness – EU pricing is out of step. Buyer resistance will only grow.
