📈 Sugar Prices Continue Uptrend – Futures Reach New Short-Term Highs
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures extended their rally for a second day, with the May 2025 contract rising by 1.27% to USD 552.90/t (EUR 514.20/t). Strong speculative buying and fund positioning pushed prices to the highest close since mid-March. However, the physical market in Europe remains disconnected, as EU spot prices stay flat at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices – 02 April 2025
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 552.90 | +1.27% | 514.20 |
| Aug 25 | 542.80 | +1.16% | 504.80 |
| Oct 25 | 537.80 | +1.13% | 500.15 |
| Dec 25 | 534.20 | +1.01% | 496.81 |
| Mar 26 | 532.00 | +0.86% | 495.76 |
| May 26 | 525.70 | +0.70% | 489.90 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🌍 Market Commentary & Drivers
📈 Futures Driven by Technical Momentum
– Second day of strong upward movement.
– Resistance near USD 555/t is being tested.
– Trading activity remains concentrated in short-term contracts (May–Aug 2025).
🇪🇺 EU Physical Market Unchanged
– No follow-through in physical trade.
– Spot prices remain stable: EUR 0.52–0.54/kg FCA.
– Forward contracts above EUR 0.60/kg FCA remain unsupported by buyers.
🌦️ Fundamentals Still Balanced
– No new supply shocks were reported.
– Brazil and India both report steady harvest progress.
– Thai exports remain strong and consistent.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (03–05 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr | 545 – 555 | 507 – 516 |
| 04 Apr | 542 – 552 | 504 – 513 |
| 05 Apr | 538 – 548 | 500 – 509 |
📌 Outlook:
Futures may continue to push higher, but technical exhaustion is near. Without physical confirmation, rallies may fade quickly.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Sugar futures continue to rise – momentum-driven.
❌ Physical demand remains soft, especially in the EU.
📉 Spot prices show no confirmation of futures strength.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Stay patient; no need to follow futures rally.
- 📦 Sellers: Use the rally to secure forward contracts with volume conditions.
- 📊 Traders: Watch for resistance near 555 USD/t (516 EUR/t) – profit-taking likely soon.
📍 The paper market rallies, but the real world is not buying it – yet.