“Sugar Prices Decline After Recent Gains – Market Corrects Amid Uncertain Demand”
Closing Prices on February 6, 2025 (ICE Sugar No. 5) Converted to EUR
Using a USD/EUR exchange rate of 0.92, the latest closing prices for ICE Sugar No. 5 in EUR are as follows:
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (EUR) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 522.40 | 480.61 | -5.43 | -1.13% |
| May 2025 | 508.10 | 467.45 | -3.68 | -0.79% |
| August 2025 | 490.00 | 450.80 | -3.77 | -0.84% |
| October 2025 | 480.80 | 442.34 | -4.14 | -0.94% |
| December 2025 | 479.10 | 440.77 | -3.40 | -0.77% |
| March 2026 | 483.10 | 444.45 | -2.76 | -0.62% |
| May 2026 | 485.10 | 446.29 | -2.12 | -0.47% |
| August 2026 | 486.30 | 447.40 | -1.84 | -0.41% |
| October 2026 | 484.50 | 445.74 | -1.84 | -0.41% |
| December 2026 | 484.40 | 445.65 | -1.84 | -0.41% |
| March 2027 | 485.90 | 447.03 | -1.93 | -0.43% |
| May 2027 | 483.30 | 444.64 | -1.93 | -0.43% |
| August 2027 | 483.10 | 444.45 | -1.93 | -0.43% |
| October 2027 | 482.40 | 443.81 | -1.93 | -0.44% |
Market Analysis: Sugar Prices Face First Notable Pullback
After several sessions of price increases, the sugar market has reversed, with most contracts losing between 0.4% and 1.1%.
- Short-Term Contracts Lead the Decline:
- The March 2025 contract dropped by -1.13% to €480.61/t, marking the largest single-day loss in recent sessions.
- The May 2025 contract declined by -0.79% to €467.45/t, reflecting weaker near-term demand.
- Longer-term contracts also posted losses, but the declines were smaller, indicating that traders are not yet turning fully bearish.
- Market Correction Following Recent Surge:
- The recent bullish rally was fueled by supply concerns in India, where sugar production is expected to fall by 17% to 26.52 million tonnes due to adverse weather and disease outbreaks.
- Now, traders appear to be taking profits, leading to a natural price pullback.
- EU Sugar Market Remains Unchanged:
- Prices in the EU remain stable at €0.50/kg to €0.54/kg FCA EU, with low demand continuing to dominate the market.
- Large industrial buyers have already secured contracts, leaving only around 30% of sugar volumes still uncovered.
- With no immediate price pressure in Europe, the region remains insulated from global volatility – at least for now.
Market Outlook: What’s Next for Sugar Prices?
📈 Bullish Scenario:
- If new export restrictions from India emerge, global sugar prices could rebound quickly.
- Any signs of stronger demand ahead of Easter could support renewed price gains.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
- If the market has already priced in India’s supply issues, then further corrections are possible.
- A lack of fresh demand from major importers could prevent another price surge.
🔍 Strategic Recommendations:
- Buyers should monitor price movements carefully, as this correction could offer a temporary buying opportunity.
- Producers should be cautious about holding excess stock, as further declines could erode recent gains.
Conclusion
After a strong rally, sugar prices have entered a correction phase, with all contracts posting losses. The market is digesting recent gains, and traders are waiting for further signals on global supply conditions. Meanwhile, the EU market remains stable, unaffected by the volatility of the ICE sugar futures market.
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