📉 Sugar Prices Decline Further as Market Faces Weak Demand & Technical Selling
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures extended their losses, with the May 2025 contract falling by 1.33% to USD 532.60/t (EUR 495.32/t). The decline reflects weak demand signals, increased technical selling, and market adjustments. Meanwhile, EU sugar prices remain under pressure, now trading between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as the industry struggles to push through price increases.
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 532.60 | €495.32 | -7.10 | -6.60 | -1.33% |
| Aug 25 | 514.40 | €478.37 | -7.60 | -7.03 | -1.48% |
| Oct 25 | 505.70 | €470.30 | -7.50 | -6.94 | -1.48% |
| Dec 25 | 501.50 | €466.39 | -7.10 | -6.56 | -1.42% |
| Mar 26 | 501.00 | €465.93 | -6.60 | -6.14 | -1.32% |
| May 26 | 498.60 | €463.79 | -7.10 | -6.58 | -1.42% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Weak Demand & Selling Pressure Weigh on Prices 📉
- Global demand remains lackluster, with buyers hesitant to commit to higher prices.
- As key support levels were tested, technical selling pressure added to today’s losses.
🔹 EU Sugar Market Faces Further Weakness 🇪🇺
- Prices have dropped by EUR 0.02/kg FCA, now trading between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA.
- Demand remains too weak despite falling global stock levels to push prices higher.
- Buyers remain cautious, with 30% of available sugar volume still uncontracted.
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🔹 Supply Remains Adequate, Despite Indian Production Concerns
- No additional export restrictions from India have been announced, keeping supply stable.
- Brazil’s sugar exports continue at a strong pace, balancing the global market.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (29.02 – 02.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 525 – 535 USD/t (488 – 497 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Prices are likely to remain under pressure unless demand strengthens.
- Further technical selling could lead to additional declines in the coming sessions.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain under pressure, but lower demand is offsetting price risks.
- Imports remain strong, balancing weak domestic output.
- Ethanol production remains steady, keeping sugar allocations stable.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices fell sharply due to weak demand & technical selling.
✅ EU market continues to weaken, with prices falling to EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA.
✅ Global supply remains stable, but no demand boost is expected in the short term.
✅ A further correction is possible unless new bullish catalysts emerge.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Consider delaying large purchases while prices are declining.
🔹 Sellers: Be prepared for further price corrections, with limited short-term upside potential.
🔹 Traders: Watch for potential support levels around USD 525/t (EUR 488/t) for short-term positioning.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!