📉 Sugar Prices Drift Lower to Close Q1 – No Support from Fundamentals or Demand
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures ended the first quarter weakly, with the May 2025 contract slipping by 0.15% to USD 534.90/t (EUR 497.46/t). Despite intraday spikes above USD 548/t, the market could not sustain gains. EU spot prices remain stuck between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, and forward offers at EUR 0.62/kg FCA continue to meet resistance. The global sugar market remains oversupplied, with no visible demand momentum.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (31.03.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 534.90 | -0.15% | 497.46 |
| Aug 25 | 524.40 | -0.34% | 487.69 |
| Oct 25 | 520.00 | -0.27% | 483.60 |
| Dec 25 | 517.10 | -0.29% | 481.90 |
| Mar 26 | 515.70 | -0.39% | 480.60 |
| May 26 | 511.10 | -0.31% | 475.32 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
📉 Market Sentiment & Drivers
📉 Q1 Closes in the Red
– The May 2025 contract tested resistance near USD 548/t but reversed late-session.
– Broader risk sentiment and weak macro signals weighed on agri commodities.
🇪🇺 EU Sugar Market Remains Underwhelming
– Spot prices hold steady between EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
– Producers’ forward offers at EUR 0.62/kg remain largely unaccepted.
– Buyers remain cautious heading into the Q2 contracting window.
📦 Retail Discounts Continue to Undermine Confidence
– Reports of retail prices at EUR 0.37/kg in Eastern Europe add to market confusion.
– Disconnect between producer pricing logic and end-consumer realities persists.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (01–03 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr | 530 – 540 | 492 – 502 |
| 02 Apr | 528 – 538 | 490 – 500 |
| 03 Apr | 525 – 535 | 488 – 498 |
📌 Outlook:
The market will likely drift within a narrow band without clear bullish drivers. Weak EU demand caps the upside.
🧾 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Q1 ends with weakness and no clear directional signal.
📉 EU sugar prices remain stuck, while forward offers look increasingly unrealistic.
⚖️ Global stocks remain stable, but the demand side offers little support.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Q2 offers should be reviewed carefully – no rush to commit.
- 🏭 Sellers: Only fix forward volumes with firm commitments.
- 📊 Traders: Monitor support near 530 USD/t (492 EUR/t) – momentum remains negative.
📍 Outlook for April: Sugar starts the new quarter on a soft footing. Patience and flexibility are key.