Sugar Prices Drop Sharply – Market Rejects Bullish Momentum

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📉 Sugar Prices Drop Sharply – Market Rejects Bullish Momentum

ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw a sharp decline on 24 March 2025. The May 2025 contract fell by 1.84% to USD 542.40/t (EUR 504.43/t), reversing recent short-term gains. Despite producers offering forward contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, EU spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA, highlighting weak demand and growing pressure in the physical market.


📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices – 24 March 2025

Contract Closing Price (USD/t) Change (%) Closing Price (EUR/t)
May 25 542.40 -1.84% 504.43
Aug 25 530.60 -1.62% 493.46
Oct 25 526.10 -1.46% 488.27
Dec 25 522.90 -1.28% 485.30
Mar 26 522.00 -1.13% 484.46
May 26 516.20 -0.99% 480.07

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)


🌍 Market Drivers & Situation

🔹 Technical selling pressure returns:
– Following last week’s bounce, prices declined again on Monday as speculative momentum faded.
– Lack of fundamental demand kept the downward pressure intact.

🔹 EU market still unresponsive:
– Spot prices are unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
– Offers for forward contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA continue, but buyers are not responding.
– Key question: If producers expect higher prices, why are they selling forward now?

Mintec Global

🔹 Global supply remains balanced:
– India and Thailand face smaller harvests, but no export disruptions.
– Brazil continues to ship steadily, avoiding any real supply tightness.


🔮 3-Day Forecast (25–27 March 2025)

Date Expected Range (USD/t) Expected Range (EUR/t)
25 Mar 535 – 545 498 – 507
26 Mar 533 – 543 496 – 505
27 Mar 530 – 540 494 – 502

📌 Outlook:
The market is expected to remain volatile and range-bound. No clear demand catalyst yet.


📉 Global Sugar Fundamentals

Year Production Consumption Ending Stocks
2021/22 17.0 Mt 18.0 Mt 4.0 Mt
2022/23 16.5 Mt 17.8 Mt 3.8 Mt
2023/24 15.9 Mt 17.5 Mt 3.5 Mt
2024/25* 16.2 Mt 17.3 Mt 3.3 Mt

🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Sugar prices dropped sharply – speculative buying wasn’t backed by real demand.
📉 EU spot market remains weak – producers unable to implement higher prices.
📦 Forward prices (EUR 0.62/kg) remain theoretical – the physical market doesn’t support them.

📌 Recommendations:

  • 🛒 Buyers: No urgency – monitor further downside potential.
  • 📉 Sellers: Only contract forward if volumes are secured.
  • 📊 Traders: Watch technical support around 530 USD/t (494 EUR/t).