📉 Sugar Prices Drop Sharply – Market Rejects Bullish Momentum
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw a sharp decline on 24 March 2025. The May 2025 contract fell by 1.84% to USD 542.40/t (EUR 504.43/t), reversing recent short-term gains. Despite producers offering forward contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, EU spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA, highlighting weak demand and growing pressure in the physical market.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices – 24 March 2025
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Change (%) | Closing Price (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 542.40 | -1.84% | 504.43 |
| Aug 25 | 530.60 | -1.62% | 493.46 |
| Oct 25 | 526.10 | -1.46% | 488.27 |
| Dec 25 | 522.90 | -1.28% | 485.30 |
| Mar 26 | 522.00 | -1.13% | 484.46 |
| May 26 | 516.20 | -0.99% | 480.07 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🌍 Market Drivers & Situation
🔹 Technical selling pressure returns:
– Following last week’s bounce, prices declined again on Monday as speculative momentum faded.
– Lack of fundamental demand kept the downward pressure intact.
🔹 EU market still unresponsive:
– Spot prices are unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
– Offers for forward contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA continue, but buyers are not responding.
– Key question: If producers expect higher prices, why are they selling forward now?
🔹 Global supply remains balanced:
– India and Thailand face smaller harvests, but no export disruptions.
– Brazil continues to ship steadily, avoiding any real supply tightness.
🔮 3-Day Forecast (25–27 March 2025)
| Date | Expected Range (USD/t) | Expected Range (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar | 535 – 545 | 498 – 507 |
| 26 Mar | 533 – 543 | 496 – 505 |
| 27 Mar | 530 – 540 | 494 – 502 |
📌 Outlook:
The market is expected to remain volatile and range-bound. No clear demand catalyst yet.
📉 Global Sugar Fundamentals
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Sugar prices dropped sharply – speculative buying wasn’t backed by real demand.
📉 EU spot market remains weak – producers unable to implement higher prices.
📦 Forward prices (EUR 0.62/kg) remain theoretical – the physical market doesn’t support them.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: No urgency – monitor further downside potential.
- 📉 Sellers: Only contract forward if volumes are secured.
- 📊 Traders: Watch technical support around 530 USD/t (494 EUR/t).
