📉 Sugar Prices End Week Lower – Market Drift Continues as Demand Remains Weak
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures closed lower across all contracts on 28 March 2025. The May 2025 contract slipped by 0.39% to USD 535.70/t (EUR 498.20/t). With no new buying momentum and a soft physical market, the sugar complex remains in a drift. As buyers resist forward contracts above EUR 0.60/kg FCA, EU spot prices are stable but unconvincing.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Market Summary (28.03.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 535.70 | -0.39% | 498.20 |
| Aug 25 | 526.20 | -0.21% | 489.37 |
| Oct 25 | 521.40 | -0.17% | 485.90 |
| Dec 25 | 518.60 | -0.12% | 483.30 |
| Mar 26 | 517.70 | -0.12% | 482.46 |
| May 26 | 512.70 | -0.27% | 476.81 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Insights
🔻 Futures Weaken Further Despite Light Volume
– Momentum has stalled, with prices drifting lower for the third session.
– Most trading volume remained in near-term contracts (May, Aug 2025), but no fresh direction emerged.
🇪🇺 EU Sugar Market Still Under Pressure
– Spot prices unchanged: EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
– Forward contracts above EUR 0.60/kg remain mostly theoretical.
– Buyers remain passive; Polish discount retail prices around EUR 0.37/kg continue to undercut the market.
🌍 Global Outlook: Balanced Supply
– India, Brazil, and Thailand report stable logistics and no disruptions.
– No new weather issues or export restrictions to trigger bullish momentum.
🔮 3-Day Forecast (29–31 March 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar | 530 – 540 | 492 – 502 |
| 30 Mar | 528 – 538 | 490 – 500 |
| 31 Mar | 525 – 535 | 488 – 498 |
📌 Outlook:
Without a catalyst, sugar remains vulnerable to additional weakness. Traders may stay on the sidelines heading into month-end.
📉 Global Sugar Balance (2021–2025 forecast)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 ICE Sugar futures end the week lower – with little demand and no fresh story to support prices.
⚖️ EU market remains flat, and producer efforts to push higher contracts continue to meet resistance.
📦 Retail pricing pressures in Eastern Europe add to the challenge.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Keep buying spot only when needed – no urgency to cover long term.
- 💼 Sellers: Focus on volume-linked deals; avoid forward prices without buyer interest.
- 📊 Traders: Watch 530 USD/t (492 EUR/t) support level closely for the next move.
🧮 Sugar remains range-bound – calm ahead of Q2 contracting window.