Sugar Prices End Week Lower – Market Drift Continues as Demand Remains Weak
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures closed lower across all contracts on 28 March 2025. The May 2025 contract slipped by 0.39% to USD 535.70/t (EUR 498.20/t). With no new buying momentum and a soft physical market, the sugar complex remains in a drift. As buyers resist forward contracts above EUR 0.60/kg FCA, EU spot prices are stable but unconvincing.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
ICE Sugar No. 5 – Market Summary (28.03.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 535.70 | -0.39% | 498.20 |
| Aug 25 | 526.20 | -0.21% | 489.37 |
| Oct 25 | 521.40 | -0.17% | 485.90 |
| Dec 25 | 518.60 | -0.12% | 483.30 |
| Mar 26 | 517.70 | -0.12% | 482.46 |
| May 26 | 512.70 | -0.27% | 476.81 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
Market Insights
Futures Weaken Further Despite Light Volume
– Momentum has stalled, with prices drifting lower for the third session.
– Most trading volume remained in near-term contracts (May, Aug 2025), but no fresh direction emerged.
EU Sugar Market Still Under Pressure
– Spot prices unchanged: EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.
– Forward contracts above EUR 0.60/kg remain mostly theoretical.
– Buyers remain passive; Polish discount retail prices around EUR 0.37/kg continue to undercut the market.
Global Outlook: Balanced Supply
– India, Brazil, and Thailand report stable logistics and no disruptions.
– No new weather issues or export restrictions to trigger bullish momentum.
3-Day Forecast (29–31 March 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar | 530 – 540 | 492 – 502 |
| 30 Mar | 528 – 538 | 490 – 500 |
| 31 Mar | 525 – 535 | 488 – 498 |
Outlook:
Without a catalyst, sugar remains vulnerable to additional weakness. Traders may stay on the sidelines heading into month-end.
Global Sugar Balance (2021–2025 forecast)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
Conclusion & Strategy
ICE Sugar futures end the week lower – with little demand and no fresh story to support prices.
EU market remains flat, and producer efforts to push higher contracts continue to meet resistance.
Retail pricing pressures in Eastern Europe add to the challenge.
Recommendations:
Buyers: Keep buying spot only when needed – no urgency to cover long term.
Sellers: Focus on volume-linked deals; avoid forward prices without buyer interest.- Traders: Watch 530 USD/t (492 EUR/t) support level closely for the next move.
Sugar remains range-bound – calm ahead of Q2 contracting window.
