Sugar Prices Rebound – But Global-EU Gap Remains as Policy Wall Holds

📈 Sugar Prices Rebound – But Global-EU Gap Remains as Policy Wall Holds

ICE Sugar No. 5 futures rebounded strongly on 22 April 2025. The August 2025 contract rose 1.42% to USD 506.10/t (EUR 470.67/t), supported by technical buying and short-covering. However, the EU market remains insulated from global volatility, with FCA spot prices unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg. The pricing gap between international and EU sugar is growing, politically sustained by import restrictions and Mercosur delays.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (22.04.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	506.10	+1.42%	470.67
Oct 25	497.90	+1.14%	463.05
Dec 25	495.30	+0.95%	460.63
Mar 26	497.50	+0.92%	462.68
May 26	494.90	+0.85%	460.26
Aug 26	491.10	+0.63%	456.72

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Overview

📈 Technical Rebound – But No Real Demand Catalyst
– Sugar futures advanced on speculative positioning.
– No new demand-side news, indicating the move is technically driven, not fundamentally.

🇪🇺 EU Market Steady at High Levels – Protected by Policy
– FCA offers remain at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, ~20% above world parity.
– The Mercosur trade deal, though politically concluded, remains unratified.
– Opposition from several EU member states and the sugar lobby is delaying market opening.

🗨️ Commentary:

“The EU market is a fortress – and its walls are holding, but the pressure outside is growing.”

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 22.04.2025)

Last verified within 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.69 €	Standard shelf price
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €	Feinkristallzucker (1 kg)
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker (1 kg)
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €	Coop Prix Garantie Kristallzucker
Hungary	Tesco Hungary	0.69 €	Kristálycukor, 1 kg

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (23–25 April 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
23 Apr	500 – 510	465 – 474
24 Apr	498 – 508	463 – 472
25 Apr	495 – 505	460 – 470

📌 Outlook:
Short-term upside remains limited without fundamental support. EU pricing is likely to stay firm due to market insulation.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Global market bounces – but still fragile.
❌ EU prices remain structurally high due to policy barriers.
📉 Structural reform (e.g. Mercosur ratification) is key to alignment.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Use global trends to push for rebates – policy can’t shield forever.
• 📦 Sellers: Protect margins while EU prices remain artificially high.
• 📊 Traders: Watch for signs of export pressure from Brazil and India – upside is capped.

📍 Summary: The market rebounds, but the EU remains locked in a sugar bubble – at least for now.