Sugar Prices Rebound Sharply – German Beet Sector Faces Stolbur Disease Threat

Sugar Prices Rebound Sharply – German Beet Sector Faces Stolbur Disease Threat

On 9 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures rebounded strongly. The August 2025 contract climbed by 1.52% to USD 472.40/t (EUR 439.33/t), supported by short-covering and a broader commodities lift. Meanwhile, a growing plant disease threat – Stolbur phytoplasma – is putting pressure on German sugar beet production, particularly in southern regions, potentially affecting EU supply outlooks.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (09.06.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	472.40	+1.52%	439.33
Oct 25	468.60	+1.34%	436.80
Dec 25	469.00	+1.09%	437.17
Mar 26	473.80	+0.91%	440.63
May 26	474.60	+0.78%	441.38
Aug 26	474.40	+0.65%	441.19

(Umrechnungskurs: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🦠 German Beet Crop Threatened by Stolbur Outbreak

🚨 A serious plant disease (Stolbur, caused by Candidatus Phytoplasma solani) is spreading rapidly in southern Germany.
🔬 Carried by the Schilf-Glasflügelzikade (a leafhopper), the disease leads to soft, decaying roots.
🌱 First affecting sugar beets, the pathogen is now hitting potatoes, onions, carrots, celery, beets and paprika.
💬 According to the Baden-Württemberg Ministry of Agriculture, crop failure risks are high; several farmers are considering stopping sugar beet cultivation.
🌡️ The disease is climate-sensitive – warmer, drier weather accelerates its spread.

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🇪🇺 EU Market Impact – Supply Concerns vs. Structural Oversupply

• FCA spot prices in the EU remain subdued at EUR 0.51–0.53/kg, but disease-driven supply fears could create regional tightness in Germany.
• Traders report increased uncertainty for Q4 delivery volumes from certain southern German cooperatives.
• Retail prices remain stable, but wholesalers begin monitoring disease developments closely.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 09.06.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.439	Moderate rebound after six-day slide
EU Spot FCA	0.51–0.53	Still under pressure, but local risks are growing
Retail Germany	0.69	Unchanged – consumer market calm
Retail Poland	0.42	Far below wholesale – highly competitive

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (10–12 June 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
10 June	468 – 478	435 – 445
11 June	465 – 475	432 – 442
12 June	463 – 472	430 – 439

📌 Outlook:
Short-covering may continue, but fundamentals (high global supply, weak EU demand) cap upside. Disease news may generate local volatility.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Futures have bounced, but momentum is shallow
⚠️ Stolbur outbreak in southern Germany adds new uncertainty to Q4 supply
📦 EU spot prices remain low, but the market may begin to price in regional risk premiums

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Monitor regional offers closely – especially from southern Germany
• 📦 Sellers: Leverage weather and disease concerns in contract talks
• 📊 Traders: Watch for confirmation above USD 475/t before trend reversal call

📍 Summary:
ICE sugar futures recover modestly, but a new variable has emerged: Stolbur disease threatens German beet output, and could shift the EU market narrative if it worsens.