📈 Sugar Prices Rise Further – Speculative Buying Pushes ICE Sugar No. 5 Higher
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures extended their rally, with the May 2025 contract rising by 1.02% to USD 538.70/t (EUR 501.99/t). The market is driven by speculative buying and short-covering, while EU sugar producers continue pushing higher prices for the new season. Despite this, EU sugar prices remain between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as weak demand and abundant supply prevent price increases.
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Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 538.70 | €501.99 | +5.50 | +5.12 | +1.02% |
| Aug 25 | 524.40 | €488.69 | +7.20 | +6.70 | +1.37% |
| Oct 25 | 518.00 | €483.57 | +6.70 | +6.23 | +1.29% |
| Dec 25 | 515.40 | €481.32 | +5.90 | +5.49 | +1.14% |
| Mar 26 | 516.50 | €482.34 | +5.50 | +5.12 | +1.06% |
| May 26 | 513.40 | €479.46 | +4.80 | +4.46 | +0.93% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Speculative Buying & Market Volatility Drive Prices Up 📈
- Recent gains are fueled by speculative trading and technical support levels.
- Short-covering activity has contributed to price movements, despite weak fundamental demand.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: New Season Contracts Offered at Higher Prices 🇪🇺
- EU sugar producers continue to push contracts for the next season at EUR 0.62/kg FCA.
- But if prices are expected to rise, why are producers selling now?
- This suggests uncertainty in their pricing forecasts and an attempt to lock in early sales.
- EU spot prices remain weak at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, with no significant demand growth.
🔹 Global Sugar Supply Remains Stable Despite Indian Shortfalls 🌎
- India’s production remains lower, but no further export restrictions have been announced.
- Brazil and Thailand continue to export sugar at strong volumes, keeping global supplies balanced.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (14.03 – 16.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 535 – 545 USD/t (498 – 507 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Prices may continue to fluctuate, with speculative trading keeping volatility high.
- Fundamental demand remains weak, limiting any long-term price increases.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing major price surges.
- Imports continue to meet supply needs, balancing weaker domestic demand.
- Ethanol production remains unchanged, keeping sugar allocations steady.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices rose due to speculative trading, not increased demand.
✅ EU market remains weak, with producers offering new contracts at higher prices.
✅ Global sugar supply remains stable, preventing significant price spikes.
✅ Further market fluctuations are expected, but no long-term bullish signals yet.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Watch for corrections, as speculative rallies may not hold.
🔹 Sellers: Take advantage of short-term price spikes for strategic sales.
🔹 Traders: Monitor resistance levels at 545 USD/t (507 EUR/t) for potential price action.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!