📈 Sugar Prices See Modest Gains – EU Market Remains Unchanged
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures posted modest gains, with the May 2025 contract rising by 0.52% to USD 541.50/t (EUR 503.60/t). While speculative interest remains mildly supportive, the EU sugar market continues to show weak demand, with prices still fluctuating between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA. Meanwhile, sugar producers are offering new contracts for the next season at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, yet market confidence in higher future prices remains questionable.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 541.50 | €503.60 | +2.80 | +2.60 | +0.52% |
| Aug 25 | 527.10 | €490.20 | +2.70 | +2.51 | +0.51% |
| Oct 25 | 520.40 | €483.97 | +2.40 | +2.23 | +0.46% |
| Dec 25 | 516.90 | €480.72 | +1.50 | +1.40 | +0.29% |
| Mar 26 | 517.70 | €481.46 | +1.20 | +1.12 | +0.23% |
| May 26 | 513.60 | €477.65 | +0.20 | +0.19 | +0.04% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Modest Price Gains Driven by Technical Trading 📈
- Sugar futures rose slightly, driven by technical adjustments rather than fundamental demand.
- No major new buying interest was observed from industrial consumers.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Fundamental Demand Increase Despite Higher Contract Offers 🇪🇺
- New season contracts continue to be offered at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, yet actual demand remains weak.
- EU spot prices remain between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, failing to rise despite global price fluctuations.
- Producers seem eager to lock in contracts now, which suggests uncertainty rather than confidence in higher future prices.
🔹 Global Sugar Market Shows Stable Supply Conditions 🌎
- India’s production shortfalls remain a concern, but exports continue.
- Brazil and Thailand maintain steady sugar flows, keeping supply well-balanced.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (15.03 – 17.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 535 – 545 USD/t (498 – 507 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Limited upside potential remains, with speculative traders keeping the market afloat.
- No fundamental demand shift expected in the EU, keeping prices under pressure.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing large price movements.
- Imports continue to meet market demand, offsetting weak domestic consumption.
- Ethanol production remains unchanged, keeping sugar allocations steady.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices saw modest gains, driven by technical buying rather than strong demand.
✅ EU market remains weak, with producers pushing new season contracts at higher prices.
✅ Global supply remains well-balanced, preventing major price spikes.
✅ Further market consolidation is expected, with no strong bullish momentum yet.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Be cautious—higher contract prices for the next season may not be justified if demand remains weak.
🔹 Sellers: Locking in contracts now could be a strategic move, given ongoing market uncertainty.
🔹 Traders: Watch for resistance near 545 USD/t (507 EUR/t) for short-term positioning.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!