Sugar Prices Slip Again – Rebound Loses Steam as Fundamentals Weigh

📉 Sugar Prices Slip Again – Rebound Loses Steam as Fundamentals Weigh

ICE Sugar No. 5 futures declined again on 23 April 2025. The August 2025 contract lost 0.50% to USD 503.30/t (EUR 467.07/t), while the entire forward curve traded weaker. Despite a recent short-term recovery, sugar remains under pressure from ample global supply, weak demand, and a lack of institutional buying interest. The EU spot market remains stable but disconnected from global dynamics.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (23.04.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	503.30	-0.50%	467.07
Oct 25	496.40	-0.32%	461.66
Dec 25	494.70	-0.16%	459.07
Mar 26	496.80	-0.20%	461.02
May 26	493.30	-0.49%	458.77
Aug 26	490.00	-0.57%	455.00

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Observations

🔻 Momentum Fades – Short-Term Buyers Step Back
– After two sessions of recovery, prices turned negative again.
– Weak fundamentals prevail, with no fresh demand drivers.

🇪🇺 EU Pricing Remains Elevated – Policy Shield Holds
– Spot offers unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA.
– Import pressure remains low due to quota controls and delayed Mercosur ratification.

🛍️ Retail Market Stable But Unsupportive
– Supermarket shelf prices remain disconnected from industrial offers, especially in Eastern and Central Europe.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 23.04.2025)

Last verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.69 €	Standard shelf price
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €	Feinkristallzucker (1 kg)
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker (1 kg)
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €	Coop Prix Garantie Kristallzucker
Hungary	Tesco Hungary	0.69 €	Kristálycukor, 1 kg

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (24–26 April 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
24 Apr	498 – 508	463 – 472
25 Apr	495 – 505	460 – 470
26 Apr	490 – 500	456 – 465

📌 Outlook:
Expect continued sideways-to-weaker movement. Only fresh demand or political developments (Mercosur, Brazil policy) could shift the trend.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Market consolidates again – short-term gains rolled back.
❌ EU prices remain overvalued – artificially supported.
📉 Retail levels and global benchmarks remain unsupportive of EU forward pricing.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Continue to negotiate – fundamentals favour discounts.
• 📦 Sellers: Reassess pricing policy – rising resistance from industrial clients.
• 📊 Traders: Volatility declining – focus shifts to macro triggers and politics.

📍 Summary: Sugar softens again – structure suggests more downside ahead unless fresh momentum arrives.