Sugar Prices Stay Firm, Yet Europe’s Full Silos and Strong Crops Signal Change

Sugar Prices Stay Firm, Yet Europe’s Full Silos and Strong Crops Signal Change

ICE White Sugar No.5 October 2025 futures closed 0.45% higher at USD 489.40/t (EUR 447.23/t) on Thursday, holding near recent highs even as most deferred contracts slipped. In the EU, spot prices above €0.60/kg remain in place, but with warehouses full and a strong harvest expected in September–October, analysts warn that the balance could shift quickly.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Futures Closing Summary (14.08.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Oct 25	489.40	+0.45%	447.23
Dec 25	478.50	-0.23%	436.97
Mar 26	479.80	-0.75%	438.15
May 26	479.20	-0.92%	437.64
Aug 26	477.90	-1.03%	436.12
Dec 26	482.10	-0.93%	439.65

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.913 EUR – ECB reference 14.08.2025)

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🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – Firm but Vulnerable

• FCA Poland: firmly above €0.60/kg, unchanged.
• DDP Germany: ~€0.70/kg, holding steady.
• Forward contracting continues for Q4, but buyers are increasingly aware that full producer inventories and an above-average beet harvest could soften prices in the coming months.
• Preferential long-term contracts for large industrial buyers (Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Nestlé) still mean SMEs pay higher rates — an ongoing point of contention.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, August 2025)

Country	Retailer	Price (€/kg)
Germany	Aldi / Lidl	0.89
Poland	Biedronka	0.42
Austria	BILLA	1.49
France	Carrefour	~0.85
Belgium	Aldi MOUNTAIN®	0.75
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	~0.95
Switzerland	Aldi	1.39
Hungary	Aldi	~0.90

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🌍 Market Drivers

• 📈 October contract supported by technical buying; deferred months see profit-taking.
• 📦 EU inventories remain high ahead of the 2025/26 campaign.
• 🌱 Beet crop conditions remain excellent across key EU producing regions.
• 🇧🇷 Brazil’s crush continues at high pace; global supply is not tight.
• ⚠️ Physical market pricing is strategy-driven rather than scarcity-driven.

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🌦️ Weather Outlook

• EU: Good soil moisture, mild temperatures — yield potential strong.
• Brazil: Dry harvest conditions persist; some moisture stress in São Paulo.
• India: Monsoon stable, no threat to cane crop.
• Thailand: Normal weather pattern.

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Oct)	0.447	Slight gain – still near recent highs
EU Spot FCA (PL)	>0.60	High – supported by forward buying
DDP Germany	0.70	Stable – possible pressure post-harvest
Retail Germany	0.89	Discount retailers remain below wholesale
Retail Belgium	0.75	Aldi MOUNTAIN® price

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📈 Short-term: October contract holds strength; curve softens further out.
📦 Medium-term: High inventories + strong harvest outlook could shift EU spot market lower in Q4.
⚠️ Structural risk: Preferential pricing for large buyers may face more criticism if SMEs continue to absorb higher costs.

📌 Recommendations:

• Buyers:
  → Limit high-priced coverage; monitor harvest progress for Q4 opportunities.
  → Negotiate more balanced terms where possible.
• Sellers:
  → Use current firmness in Oct futures to secure forward contracts.
  → Prepare for potential downward adjustment as harvest supply arrives.
• Traders:
  → Resistance near USD 490–492/t; support around USD 485/t.
  → Curve softness hints at market anticipating post-harvest relief.