📈 Sugar Prices Surge as Market Sees Renewed Buying Interest
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures rebounded strongly, with the May 2025 contract rising by 1.11% to USD 530.80/t (EUR 493.64/t). The rally is driven by short-covering, renewed speculative interest, and global supply concerns. Meanwhile, EU sugar prices remain unchanged, fluctuating between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as European market fundamentals remain weak despite global price increases.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,16 - 0,8 mm
FCA 0.55 €/kg
(from CZ)
Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 530.80 | €493.64 | +5.90 | +5.49 | +1.11% |
| Aug 25 | 513.80 | €477.83 | +8.30 | +7.72 | +1.62% |
| Oct 25 | 507.20 | €471.70 | +9.90 | +9.20 | +1.95% |
| Dec 25 | 505.40 | €470.02 | +11.20 | +10.42 | +2.22% |
| Mar 26 | 507.00 | €471.51 | +12.30 | +11.44 | +2.43% |
| May 26 | 505.10 | €469.74 | +12.60 | +11.72 | +2.49% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Short-Covering & Speculative Buying Boost Prices 📉
- A strong short-covering rally contributed to the surge in futures prices.
- Renewed speculative interest pushed prices to weekly highs.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Change in Pricing Despite Global Rally 🇪🇺
- Prices remain between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, with industrial demand still weak.
- Buyers continue to resist price increases, despite rising global prices.
- No immediate supply disruptions in the EU market keep prices stable.
🔹 Supply Tightening in Key Producing Countries 🌎
- India’s sugar output remains lower, and further export restrictions are under discussion.
- Brazil and Thailand continue to export sugar steadily, but logistical bottlenecks may arise.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (11.03 – 13.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 528 – 538 USD/t (490 – 499 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Prices may continue consolidating, with some potential for further upside if speculative buying persists.
- Strong technical resistance near 540 USD/t could limit further gains in the short term.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, limiting major price swings.
- Imports continue to support supply, offsetting weaker domestic demand.
- Ethanol production remains unchanged, keeping sugar allocations stable.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices saw a strong rally due to short-covering and speculative buying.
✅ EU market remains under pressure, with no fundamental demand increase.
✅ Global supply is tightening, but no major shortages have emerged yet.
✅ Further market consolidation is likely, with limited upside potential.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Monitor price developments, as further increases could impact purchasing decisions.
🔹 Sellers: Expect continued resistance to higher prices, requiring strategic sales timing.
🔹 Traders: Look for potential resistance levels at 540 USD/t (499 EUR/t) for short-term positioning.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!