Sugar under pressure as Indian demand slows while jaggery stays firm

Sugar prices remain under pressure in India as buyers limit purchases to immediate needs and domestic supply stays comfortable, while jaggery continues to find support from tighter high‑quality stocks and better demand. Indian wholesale sugar is trading in a soft tone around EUR 41–43 per quintal equivalent, with mills actively selling and bulk demand still cautious. At the same time, jaggery holds a clear premium at roughly EUR 49–51 per quintal, reflecting stronger seasonal buying and more limited availability of good quality stock. Globally, raw sugar futures have retreated sharply from late‑2025 highs and are now trading near mid‑teens cents per pound, keeping sentiment defensive but not yet signaling a deep structural shortage.

Prices & Spreads

In New Delhi’s wholesale market, refined sugar is quoted around USD 45.55–47.12 per quintal, which translates roughly to EUR 41–43 per quintal at current FX levels. Jaggery is assessed higher, at USD 54.45–56.54 per quintal, or about EUR 49–51, underscoring firmer conditions in that segment.

In Europe, spot offers for refined granulated sugar remain stable to slightly higher. Recent FCA quotations show Eastern/Central European origins (CZ, UA, LT) mostly around EUR 0.45–0.50/kg, while German product is near EUR 0.63/kg and UK product around EUR 0.48/kg, with little movement over the past three weeks. This points to a broadly balanced physical market in the Atlantic basin.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Domestically in India, the key pressure point is demand, not supply. Buyers are covering only immediate needs, and mills are actively selling into the wholesale market. This combination is preventing any meaningful price recovery despite the start of the typical seasonal consumption phase.

Jaggery shows the opposite balance: demand is better aligned with seasonal consumption, while high‑quality stocks are comparatively tight. This is sustaining a firm premium of roughly EUR 8–10 per quintal over crystal sugar, suggesting that end‑users with flexibility may continue to substitute toward sugar where feasible.

Global Fundamentals & Futures

On the international market, ICE No.11 raw sugar futures have weakened significantly from the November 2025 peak above 27 cents/lb to the mid‑teens cents range by April, with recent trades slightly above 14 cents/lb. This aligns with expectations of ample global supply, led by strong output in Brazil and solid production in India and Thailand.

Technical indicators also point to a soft tone: NY second‑month sugar futures recently slipped below key moving averages, with oscillators showing ongoing downside momentum and nearby support around 14.30 cents/lb. For India, official projections still indicate a relatively comfortable balance in the current marketing year, even though structural concerns about cane yields and long‑term supply remain on the radar.

Weather & Regional Outlook

The near‑term weather backdrop is moderately supportive for supply. India’s meteorological outlook now calls for monsoon rainfall at about 90% of the long‑term average for June–September, slightly below earlier expectations but not yet threatening the cane crop. This points to normal‑to‑slightly‑below‑normal yields rather than a clear production shock.

In Brazil’s Centre‑South, the 2026/27 crush is progressing under mostly favorable harvest weather, reinforcing expectations of robust export availability. Against this backdrop, the main short‑term support for world prices is more likely to come from energy markets and ethanol parity than from weather‑driven supply losses.

Trading & Procurement Outlook

• Indian buyers: With wholesale sugar under pressure from slow offtake and continued mill selling, nearby coverage can remain hand‑to‑mouth, but consider modest forward booking before festival demand or any ethanol‑driven diversion tightens availability.
• Industrial users in Europe: FCA prices around EUR 0.45–0.50/kg for Central/Eastern European origins and EUR 0.48/kg in the UK look competitive relative to recent global futures. Gradual scale‑in hedging for Q3–Q4 volumes appears prudent.
• Producers & mills: In India, the weak sugar tone versus firm jaggery suggests value in promoting premium jaggery and specialty segments while using futures or options to protect downside risks on bulk sugar sales.
• Speculative participants: With No.11 futures technically soft but approaching oversold territory, risk‑reward favors a cautious, tightly‑stopped approach to new shorts; better entries may come on corrective rallies back toward key moving averages.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• India (New Delhi wholesale sugar): Bias slightly down to sideways as mills continue selling and bulk demand remains measured.
• India (jaggery): Tone likely steady to firm on ongoing seasonal buying and limited top‑quality stock.
• ICE No.11 raw sugar: Near‑term outlook sideways with mild downside risk, with support around 14 cents/lb and resistance on corrective bounces toward recent moving averages.
• EU FCA refined sugar (CZ/UA/GB): Expected to trade mostly steady around current levels in EUR/kg, barring a sharp move in global futures or FX.