The sunflower market as of mid-June 2025 is showing a mix of strength and volatility. Benchmarks on SAFEX indicate steady gains across most delivery months, with notable upward moves for the June and July contracts. This aligns with a generally resilient tone across international origination points, especially as global supply chains absorb shifting flows from Ukraine and the Black Sea region post-harvest. Meanwhile, sunflower seed and kernel prices in the Black Sea, EU, and China reflect nuanced trade sentiment, with premium adjustments based on quality, delivery terms, and ongoing logistical risks.
Market participants are navigating uncertainties from varying weather patterns across the major growing regions, and the evolving demand structure for both crushing and direct food uses. The slight easing in Black Sea spot prices is offset by firmness in EU kernels, underpinned by lean stocks and underlying demand from the edible oil and bakery sectors. Speculators and processors should closely monitor upcoming yield reports and weather forecasts, as a tight balance sheet could lead to renewed volatility in the coming weeks.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Market | Product | Location/Origin | Delivery | Price (EUR/t) | Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAFEX | Sunflower Seed (June 2025) | ZA | n/a | 9239 (ZAR) | +1.18% | 13.06.2025 |
| SAFEX | Sunflower Seed (July 2025) | ZA | n/a | 9285 (ZAR) | +0.92% | 13.06.2025 |
| Black Sea (UA) | Sunflower seeds, 98% | Odesa | FOB | €0.55/kg | -1.8% | 12.06.2025 |
| Black Sea (UA) | Sunflower kernels, meal | Odesa | FOB | €0.54/kg | -1.8% | 12.06.2025 |
| Domestic (UA) | Sunflower seeds, 98% | Kyiv | FCA | €0.54/kg | 0% | 12.06.2025 |
| Bulgaria | Kernels, hulled, bakery | Sofia | FCA | €0.95/kg | -25.8% | 11.06.2025 |
| Germany (import) | Kernels, hulled, bakery | Hamburg | FCA | €1.05/kg | -23.4% | 11.06.2025 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: Ukrainian sunflower supplies remain central. Post-harvest offers indicate ample availability, but logistical risks persist due to regional tensions and export controls.
- EU stocks: Remain tight following a smaller-than-expected 2024 harvest, increasing reliance on third-country imports.
- Demand: Strong from the oilseed crush sector in both the EU and Asia, with kernel demand underpinned by bakery and snack food consumption.
- China: Steady demand for both seed and kernel, with recent price firmness on quality lots from Ukraine and Bulgaria.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- USDA Reports: The latest WASDE notes stable global sunflower production but warns of weather-related downside risks in Eastern Europe and southern Russia.
- Speculative Positioning: Weak leverage in managed money, but increased physical hedging by crushers and processors.
- Crop Acreage: Consistent but slightly below 2024 due to high input costs and competition from maize and soya.
| Region | 2024/25 Production (Mt) | 2024/25 Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 14.3 | 2.9 |
| Russia | 16.6 | 3.4 |
| EU | 10.5 | 1.7 |
| China | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Argentina | 3.2 | 0.5 |
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Ukraine & Black Sea: Mostly favourable, but patchy dryness persists in southern and eastern oblasts; further rains needed to avoid stress in key reproductive phase.
- Russia: Seasonal weather is near-normal; local storms are anticipated to benefit Western regions, while southeastern sunflower areas stay moderately dry.
- Midwest South Africa: Mild, dry winter supports harvest logistics, but longer-term moisture deficits could affect planted area later in 2025.
- EU: Cooler, wetter than seasonal norm in Central/East Europe, which could slow fieldwork and postpone crop maturity, risking quality losses if rains persist into July.
📆 Trading Outlook & Key Insights
- Monitor Black Sea supply disruptions and insurance premiums for loaded cargoes ex-Ukraine.
- Expect further price volatility if dryness persists in Ukraine and Russia’s southeast.
- EU users may seek additional imports in Q3 to cover the summer shortage from the smaller 2024 crop.
- Spot and near-term contracts favoured for crushers due to flat forward carry.
- Buyers advised to cover key Q3 volumes ahead of possible adverse weather outcomes in Eastern Europe.
3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Direction | Forecasted Change | Key Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAFEX | Steady/Firm | +0.5 to +1.0% | Harvest logistics are smooth, but global support is |
| UA (FOB Odesa) | Slightly softer | -0.5 to -1.0% | Harvest pressure continues, strong competition |
| Bulgaria (FCA Sofia) | Stable | Flat | Demand and supply are balanced, but watch the weather |
Related posts:
Global Agricultural Production Report – June 2025 (USDA)
Sunflower Market Squeezed by Ample Supply, Weak Demand & Volatile Weather
Sunflower Market Faces Sustained Weakness Amid Rising Farmer Selling and Demand Uncertainty
Sunflower Market Outlook June 2025: Prices Rebound Amid Seasonal and Global Uncertainties
Sunflower Market Analysis 2025: Robust Consumption Meets Expanding Supply
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