Sunflower Market Analysis: Mixed Trends Amidst Price Adjustments, Weather Concerns, and Strong Export Demand

The global sunflower market is currently at a crossroads, with mixed fundamental signals driving short-term uncertainty and setting the stage for future price volatility. Recent data from SAFEX demonstrates mostly flat or slightly negative moves in sunflower seed futures, while spot prices in key Black Sea origins, such as Ukraine, remain exposed to export sentiment and ongoing weather risks. Over the past week, notable downward adjustments were observed in sunflower kernel prices across Europe, particularly at processing hubs in Bulgaria and Germany, signalling the impact of well-supplied downstream markets. Nevertheless, the broader landscape is defined by shifting fundamentals, including a delicate balance of strong export demand out of Ukraine, stable to weak processing margins in the EU, and a persistent tug-of-war between global crush demand and growing concerns over crop development due to erratic weather in the main producing countries.

On the supply side, the 2025 sunflower harvest potential looks increasingly dependent on July rainfall in Ukraine, Russia, and parts of the EU. Market participants are closely monitoring crop prospects and weather forecasts as recent dryness and bouts of heat raised fears of further downgrades to yield outlooks. Meanwhile, robust demand for sunflower oil in Asia and Africa is providing a floor to international prices, while global inventory levels continue trending tighter. As volatility remains elevated, traders, crushers, and importers must navigate these dynamics with meticulous attention to weather developments and the fluctuations of local exchange prices. In the following sections, we’ll examine the latest prices, market drivers, production fundamentals, and deliver concrete trade insights and forecasts to inform positioning in this evolving market.

📈 Prices: Latest Sunflower Market Overview

Exchange / Origin	Product	Close Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
SAFEX (ZAR/t)	Sunflower Seeds July 25	9,450	-0.15%	Soft
SAFEX (ZAR/t)	Sunflower Seeds Sep 25	9,677	-0.12%	Soft
SAFEX (ZAR/t)	Sunflower Seeds Dec 25	9,840	+0.23%	Stable
Ukraine (Odesa FCA EUR/kg)	Black Sunflower Seeds	0.53	-1.85%	Soft
Ukraine (Kyiv FCA EUR/kg)	Black Sunflower Seeds	0.55	+1.85%	Neutral
Bulgaria (Sofia FCA EUR/kg)	Hulled Kernels (chips)	0.82	-13.68%	Weak
Germany (Hamburg FCA EUR/kg)	Hulled Kernels (bakery)	1.03	-23.7%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA and IGC Reports: Indicate tightening global sunflowerseed stocks, as recent downward adjustments to Russian and Ukrainian crops coincide with sustained export demand, particularly to Asia and Mediterranean buyers.
• Ukraine Pipeline: Ongoing Black Sea logistics and the possibility of port disruptions remain a wildcard for export flows and price formation.
• Speculative Positioning: Large funds remain net short in sunflower oil, but commercials are increasing coverage as upside weather risk builds.
• Processing Margins: EU sunoil and meal margins are stable to soft, as low-priced Ukrainian seed offers pressure crushers’ profitability in Central and Eastern Europe.

📊 Fundamentals and Global Balance

Country	2024/25 Est. Production* (mln t)	Stocks (mln t)	YOY Change
Ukraine	15.4	0.8	-3%
Russia	16.8	1.5	-2%
EU-27	9.5	0.7	-4%
Argentina	3.9	0.5	+5%
Turkey	1.7	0.2	+2%

*Including oilseed only; excludes processed oil & meal.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Ukraine: Weather remains the dominant narrative. Forecasts for the next week include intermittent rainfall in key central and eastern oblasts, but further heat spells are expected, especially in southern and southeastern zones. Timely precipitation in July is critical for pod and yield formation. If dryness persists, production estimates could be scaled back another 2–4%.
• Russia: The spring was dry, but late June rains have partially stabilised crop conditions; temperature surges could again pose a risk in July.
• EU: Southern Europe (Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary) is expected to see localised storms and above-average temperatures, increasing yield risk in non-irrigated fields.

📆 Short-Term Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor weather developments in Ukraine and southern Russia daily; consider weather-risk premiums in new-crop positions.
• Seed sellers may use current Black Sea spot firmness to hedge up to 25% of unpriced volumes for Q3 delivery.
• The kernels market in the EU is likely to remain pressured short term due to ample carryover stocks and weak bakery sector demand.
• Importers/refiners should monitor offers for hulled kernels from Ukraine and Bulgaria, as further discounts may materialise mid-July.
• Exporters with access to flexible logistics could benefit from rapid execution while freight lanes remain clear.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region / Exchange	Product	Direction	Range
SAFEX	Sunflower Seeds (Jul 25)	Sideways/Soft	9,400–9,520 ZAR/t
Ukraine (Odesa FCA)	Sunflower Seeds	Mildly Bearish	0.50–0.53 EUR/kg
Bulgaria (Sofia FCA)	Kernels (hulled, chips)	Bearish	0.78–0.82 EUR/kg
Germany (Hamburg FCA)	Kernels (hulled, bakery)	Bearish	1.00–1.04 EUR/kg