Sunflower Market Analysis: Prices Under Pressure Amid Stable Supply and Weather Uncertainty

The global sunflower market currently finds itself at a crossroads, balancing steady supplies from major producing regions with mounting concerns over weather volatility and shifting demand. Recent price movements on SAFEX indicate a slight downward pressure, with most contracts closing lower on the latest trading day. Meanwhile, international spot prices for both sunflower seeds and kernels remain broadly stable, reflecting a market that is well-supplied but cautious.

Ukraine, Bulgaria, and China continue to dominate the export landscape, but the resilience of supply chains is being tested by ongoing geopolitical risks and the potential for disruptive weather patterns in the coming weeks. Market participants are closely watching the development of the 2025 crop, especially in Eastern Europe, where recent rains have improved soil moisture but forecasts hint at possible heatwaves ahead.

With speculative positioning largely neutral and global stocks adequate, the next few weeks will be pivotal in determining the direction of sunflower prices. For now, buyers and sellers are advised to monitor weather updates and regional demand trends carefully, as any sudden shift could quickly change the market’s tone.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Close (ZAR/t)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SAFEX	Jun 25	9,042	-0.42%	Bearish
SAFEX	Jul 25	9,166	-0.40%	Bearish
SAFEX	Sep 25	9,400	-0.03%	Stable
SAFEX	Dec 25	9,587	+0.10%	Neutral

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Prev. Price	Change
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.57	0.57	0%
Sunflower kernels (meal)	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.55	0.56	-1.8%
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	MD	Rheinfelden Herten	FCA	0.46	0.46	0%

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine remains the world’s leading sunflower seed producer and exporter, with stable export flows from Odesa despite ongoing logistical challenges.
• Bulgaria and Moldova are supplying steady volumes to both EU and regional markets, while China is increasingly competitive in value-added sunflower kernel exports.
• Global demand for sunflower oil and meal remains robust, with EU processors maintaining high crush rates.
• Speculative activity is moderate; funds are largely on the sidelines, reflecting uncertainty about the new crop and macroeconomic signals.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE figures indicate global sunflower seed production for 2024/25 is projected at 58.2 million tonnes, up 2% year-on-year, with higher output expected in Ukraine and Russia.
• Stocks: Global ending stocks are forecast to remain comfortable, limiting upside price risk in the short term.
• Crop Acreage: Early indications suggest stable to slightly increased planting in Eastern Europe, while some EU countries are reducing acreage in favour of other oilseeds.
• Spec Positioning: Managed money remains neutral, with no clear trend in net long or short positions.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine & Southern Russia: Recent rainfall has alleviated early drought concerns, with soil moisture now adequate for crop development. However, forecasts for June indicate above-average temperatures, raising the risk of heat stress during key flowering stages.
• Bulgaria & Romania: Weather conditions remain favourable, though isolated storms could affect local yields.
• Argentina: Off-season, but soil profiles remain healthy for the next planting campaign.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
Ukraine	17.2	1.7
Russia	16.0	1.5
EU	10.8	1.2
Argentina	3.7	0.4
Others	10.5	1.1

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor weather developments in Ukraine and Russia closely, as elevated temperatures could impact yields and trigger price volatility.
• Buyers should consider covering short- to medium-term needs at current price levels, as downside appears limited by firm demand and stable stocks.
• Sellers may look to hedge forward sales, particularly if weather risks intensify in June.
• Watch for updated USDA and Black Sea crop forecasts in early June for potential market-moving data.
• Keep an eye on currency fluctuations and freight rates, which could affect export competitiveness.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Current Price	Forecast Range	Sentiment
SAFEX (Jul 25)	9,166 ZAR/t	9,120–9,200 ZAR/t	Stable/Bearish
Odesa FOB (UA, black)	0.57 USD/kg	0.56–0.58 USD/kg	Stable
BG FCA (Sofia, black)	0.48 USD/kg	0.47–0.49 USD/kg	Stable