Sunflower Market: Chinese Kernels Slide While Ukrainian Values Hold Firm

Chinese sunflower kernels and seeds have softened modestly in late June, while Ukrainian seed and oil values remain broadly steady to slightly firm, supported by tight old-crop stocks and active export demand. Weather in both China and Ukraine looks largely non-threatening in the very short term, limiting immediate weather risk premia. Sunflower markets are currently trading a two-speed story. In China, export offers for confection kernels and kernels for bakery are easing as near-term export demand cools and local crop prospects look comfortable. In Ukraine, however, the combination of limited crushing capacity, still-constrained logistics and brisk exports of sunflower oil and cake is keeping seed and product prices underpinned, even as global vegetable oil values drift lower in June. Near-term, price action is likely to stay rangebound with a slight downward bias in China and a firmer floor in Ukraine as the market bridges the gap to new-crop supplies.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR at an indicative 1.00 USD = 0.93 EUR and rounded.

Independent market data place average Chinese sunflower seed prices near 1.33 USD/kg (≈1.24 EUR/kg) at farmgate in June, with export unit values closer to 1.71 USD/kg (≈1.59 EUR/kg), confirming China’s relatively high-cost position in the global seed market.    

Supply & Demand Drivers (CN & UA)

China (CN)

• China remains a significant producer and exporter of confection sunflower seeds and kernels; official statistics show a strong year-on-year increase in average producer prices, indicating robust demand and/or tighter past supply.
• However, the recent retreat in export offer levels for kernels points to softer short-term international buying interest and increased competition from Black Sea and EU origins.
• In major northeastern producing provinces such as Heilongjiang, June 2026 has been slightly cooler than normal (around 1.5–2.0 °C below the long-term average), which generally favours vegetative development and does not yet signal yield stress.

Ukraine (UA)

• As of early June, Ukraine still held around 2.16 million tonnes of sunflower seed stocks, reflecting strong prior production but also constrained crush capacity and logistics.
• Only a limited number of plants are currently crushing sunflower, with many switching to maintenance or rapeseed; this has pushed domestic sunflower prices up to about 742 USD/t CPT Odesa for old crop, roughly 742 EUR/t at parity, while new-crop is quoted around 60 USD/t lower.
• Exports of sunflower oil and cake remain brisk, with about 383,000 t of oil and 276,000 t of cake shipped in the first 28 days of May, indicating sustained external demand that helps support seed and product prices despite seasonal pressure.

Weather Outlook (Next 3–7 Days)

Key Ukrainian Region: Dnipro / Central-East UA

Short-term forecasts for Dnipro indicate seasonally warm weather with daytime highs mostly in the mid-20s to around 30 °C and limited heavy rainfall events over the next week, which is broadly favourable for sunflower growth and does not imply acute moisture stress.

Key Chinese Region: Heilongjiang / Northeast CN

In Heilongjiang, June has so far been slightly cooler than historical norms, with near-term forecasts pointing to moderate temperatures around the upper 20s °C, suggesting benign growing conditions for sunflower at current stages.

There are no credible near-term weather threats (e.g., heatwaves or prolonged heavy rains) identified in the next 3–5 days in either core region that would justify a sharp risk premium in prices at this stage.

Fundamentals & External Influences

• Vegetable oil complex: Global sunflower oil prices have been drifting lower through June, in line with softness seen earlier in the year, even as daily indices are updated, keeping a cap on further upside for seed and kernel values.
• Logistics and capacity in Ukraine: Despite improved corridors, inland logistics and the limited number of operating crushing plants continue to restrict effective supply, underpinning domestic sunflower seed prices relative to global benchmarks.
• Macro sentiment: Broad commodity market commentary highlights cautious risk appetite and generally softer edible oil sentiment, which tempers bullish impulses from regional supply tightness.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price Indications (EUR)

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (kernels, CN-origin): With recent price easing and no immediate weather threat in northeastern China, consider gradually extending coverage on dips for Q3 shipments, but avoid chasing rallies given soft global oil prices.
• Buyers (seeds/oil, UA-origin): Expect a relatively firm floor ahead of new-crop; look for small corrections tied to vegetable oil weakness to lock in volumes, especially if logistics windows improve.
• Sellers (CN & UA): Maintain offer discipline; in China, be prepared for incremental discounts to compete with Black Sea supplies, while in Ukraine, tight crushing capacity and steady exports argue for holding near current levels.

Directional 3-Day View (June 26–28, 2026)

• CN sunflower kernels & seeds (FOB, EUR/kg): Bias slightly lower to sideways. Indicative range: kernels 1.08–1.15; seeds 1.28–1.32.
• UA sunflower seeds (FCA, EUR/kg): Mostly steady with mild upside risk on any logistics disruptions. Indicative range: 0.56–0.59.
• UA sunflower oil (CPT, EUR/kg): Sideways to marginally softer in line with global oil benchmarks. Indicative range: 1.02–1.05.