Sunflower Market Faces Sustained Weakness Amid Rising Farmer Selling and Demand Uncertainty

The sunflower market continues to struggle with weak prices and subdued buyer activity, reflecting a challenging environment for sellers in 2025. Recent trends reveal a widening gap between enthusiastic farmer selling and cautious, uncertain processor demand. Ukrainian farmers, buoyed by the prospects of liquidity and stable output, are keen to bring their seeds to market—even as buyers hesitate, amplifying downward pressure on prices.

Despite expectations that the post-harvest period might stabilize values, spot and forward prices remain soft. The 2024 DAP Ukraine (plant) indications linger at $530–540/MT, with the first signs for the 2025 crop even lower at $510–520/MT. Weakness is compounded by low market activity, apprehension about future offtake, and no immediate weather catalyst to spur new buying.

Globally, sunflower kernel and seed prices move in tandem with the dominant trend set in Eastern Europe, particularly Ukraine and Bulgaria. Softening prices across all delivery terms and product types signal competitive tension that is further heightened by the strong willingness of sellers—contrasted by only moderate interest from crushers and compounders, especially in Europe.

Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor the evolving weather patterns in the Black Sea region, speculative interest, and the stance of major importers and exporters, all under the shadow of above-average stocks and slow processing demand.

📈 Current Sunflower Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Sunflower seeds	black, 98%	Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.54	0%	Bearish
Sunflower seeds	black, 98%	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.52	0%	Bearish
Sunflower kernels	hulled, chips, 99.95%	Bulgaria	Sofia	FCA	0.95	-24.6%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• High Willingness to Sell: Ukrainian and some Eastern European farmers have stepped up selling, swelling supply and keeping prices under pressure.
• Processor Demand Uncertainty: Processors and crushers remain cautious, with slow contract activity and worries over downstream vegetable oil demand.
• Inventories and Imports: Ample stocks and moderate imports into major consuming regions are dampening urgency among buyers.
• Speculative Interest: With no strong signals from speculative investors, price support is minimal in forward contracts and spot markets.

📊 Fundamentals & Comparison with Last Report

• Latest Buyer Indications: 2024 DAP Ukraine (plant) $530–540/MT; 2025 $510–520/MT: a slight decrease highlighting persistent market weakness.
• Price Benchmark: Sunflower kernels from Bulgaria (99.95% purity, FCA Sofia) dropped sharply from $1.26 to $0.95/kg—mirroring softening in Ukraine and Moldova.
• No Major Recovery Signs: The lack of fresh demand or weather woes marks a similar trend to the prior report, with downward drift remaining.

☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Ukraine: Current growing conditions are reported as mostly favorable though some local dryness persists in southern oblasts. Short-range forecasts indicate mild temperatures and scattered showers, supportive for crop development but not enough to create market tension.
• Bulgaria & Romania: Mixed rainfall continues but drought risks have somewhat receded, supporting yield prospects.
• Russia & Black Sea Region: Ample soil moisture and moderate weather favor average to above-average crops.
• Implication: Neutral to slightly bearish, unless adverse weather emerges in July–August.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Production 2024E (MT)	Stocks (MT)
Ukraine	15.5m	2.1m
Russia	17.1m	2.7m
EU (total)	10.2m	1.8m
Argentina	3.6m	0.9m

Source: USDA / Industry estimates, June 2025

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Sellers: Consider locking in prices soon to avoid further potential declines as supply continues to weigh on the market.
• For Buyers: Remain patient; further softness is possible given the lack of strong demand signals and robust supplies.
• For Processors: Monitor weather risks in Ukraine and Russia—any adverse developments could quickly reverse sentiment.
• Watch Points: Keep a close eye on forward buyer indications for 2025; another drop could prompt short-term selling spikes.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Product	Today (USD/kg)	Day 2	Day 3
Kyiv (UA)	Sunflower seeds (FCA)	0.54	0.53–0.54	0.52–0.54
Odesa (UA)	Sunflower seeds (FCA)	0.52	0.51–0.52	0.51–0.52
Sofia (BG)	Sunflower kernels (FCA)	0.95	0.92–0.95	0.90–0.94

Short-term direction: Bearish to stable. Monitor for volatility if weather deteriorates or processing demand picks up unexpectedly.