Sunflower Market May 2025: Dual Dynamics, Weather Risks, and Price Divergence

The global sunflower market is at a pivotal crossroads as of late May 2025. While South African SAFEX futures display stability and even mild bullishness, the processed segment—especially hulled sunflower kernels in Eastern Europe—faces sharp price declines.

This divergence is fueled by robust domestic demand and limited supplies in South Africa, contrasted by a glut of hulled kernels and cautious buying in Bulgaria and neighbouring regions. Market participants are wary: early contracts for the new crop are available at attractive prices, but persistent uncertainty about the upcoming harvest’s quality and volume has eroded trust in forward deals.

Repeated contract defaults during volatile seasons have left buyers and sellers cautious, with many preferring spot purchases and minimal exposure. Meanwhile, black sunflower seeds for dehulling remain in steady demand across the EU, supporting prices despite overall market nervousness. Weather developments in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region are now critical, as any adverse shift could tighten global supply and trigger sharp price corrections. In this climate, strategic procurement and risk management are more important than ever for all market participants.

📈 Price Overview – As of 23 May 2025

Exchange/Market	Product	Delivery	Closing Price	Weekly Change	EUR/t or EUR/kg	Market Sentiment
SAFEX (ZAR/t)	Sunflower Seed	Jun ’25	9,100 ZAR	▲ +15 ZAR	~455 EUR/t	Stable/Bullish
SAFEX (ZAR/t)	Sunflower Seed	Jul ’25	9,235 ZAR	▲ +21 ZAR	~462 EUR/t	Stable/Bullish
SAFEX (ZAR/t)	Sunflower Seed	Sep ’25	9,435 ZAR	▲ +25 ZAR	~472 EUR/t	Stable/Bullish
EU (FCA)	Black Sunflower Seed	Spot	€0.51/kg	Stable	€0.51/kg	Firm Demand
EU (FCA)	Hulled Kernels Prompt	Spot	€0.93/kg	↓	€0.93/kg	Weak
EU (FCA)	Hulled Kernels New Crop	Early Offers	€0.83–0.85/kg	↓	€0.83–0.85/kg	Uncertain

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• South Africa: SAFEX futures supported by strong domestic buying and tight supplies.
• Bulgaria & Eastern Europe: Hulled kernel prices dropping due to high stocks and weak demand; early contracts viewed with scepticism.
• EU: Black seed prices steady thanks to ongoing demand for dehulling; supply risk tied to harvest outcome.
• Contract Reliability: History of delivery defaults in volatile years keeps buyers wary of forward deals.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Price Table

Origin	Product	Purity	Organic	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg or USD/kg)	Update
CN (Beijing)	Black Sunflower Seeds	98%	No	FOB	1.38 USD/kg	27-May-2025
CN (Beijing)	Hulled Kernels (confection)	99.95%	No	FOB	0.90 USD/kg	27-May-2025
UA (Odesa/Kyiv)	Black Sunflower Seeds	98%	No	FCA	0.55 EUR/kg	23-May-2025
BG (Sofia)	Hulled Kernels (confection)	99.98%	No	FCA	0,93 EUR/kg	20-May-2025
BG (Sofia)	Black Sunflower Seeds	98%	No	FCA	0.46 EUR/kg	20-May-2025
UA (Dnipro)	Hulled Kernels (bakery)	99.98%	No	FCA	1.00 EUR/kg	26-May-2025
MD (DE)	Black Sunflower Seeds	98%	No	FCA	0.46 EUR/kg	20-May-2025

🌦 Weather & Crop Outlook

• Eastern Europe/Black Sea: Weather remains the most critical variable. As of late May, conditions are mixed—some regions report adequate soil moisture, others face dryness. Any deterioration could sharply impact yields and global supply.
• South Africa: Harvest nearly complete; no major weather threats reported.
• Short-Term Risk: Storm systems forecast for parts of Ukraine and Bulgaria may disrupt late planting and early crop development. Watch for updated forecasts.

🌏 Production & Inventory Comparison

• Ukraine: Remains the world’s top exporter, but war-related risks and logistics continue to challenge flows.
• Russia: Large stocks, but export restrictions and logistics remain a wildcard.
• Bulgaria & Romania: Key suppliers to the EU, but the 2025 crop outlook is uncertain due to weather and political factors.
• China: Rising presence in the kernel export market, especially for confectionery and bakery grades.

📌 Key Market Drivers & Speculative Positioning

• SAFEX futures buoyed by local demand and tightness.
• Bulgarian processed kernel prices are collapsing under the weight of oversupply.
• Early new crop contracts in the EU are risky; history of delivery defaults during volatility.
• Spot market offers attractive but high-quality, high-risk.
• Weather in Black Sea/Eastern Europe could be the swing factor for global prices in June–July.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚠️ Exercise caution with early new crop contracts—secure only with trusted suppliers and consider delivery guarantees.
• 💰 Spot buyers: Take advantage of weak kernel prices but vet quality and delivery reliability.
• 🔍 Monitor weather in Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania closely—any adverse shift could reverse the bearish trend in kernels.
• 📦 Keep inventory flexible—hold minimal stocks unless the supply chain is highly reliable.
• 🇪🇺 Watch EU and Black Sea policy developments for potential new export restrictions or logistics disruptions.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Market/Product	Trend	Forecast (Next 3 Days)
SAFEX Sunflower Futures	⬆️ Slightly Bullish	Prices are likely to remain firm, possible further gains if local demand persists.
EU Black Sunflower Seeds	➡️ Stable	Prices are expected to hold as demand for dehulling supports the market.
Hulled Sunflower Kernels (EU/BG)	⬇️ Bearish	Further mild declines are possible as oversupply and harvest uncertainty persist.