Sunflower Market Outlook June 2025: Prices Rebound Amid Seasonal and Global Uncertainties

The sunflower market is experiencing renewed price momentum this June, following several months of corrective action and hesitant trade flow. Recent prices on the South African SAFEX Exchange have shifted higher across most contracts, with futures for June, July, September, and December 2025 all posting noticeable gains. This recovery comes against a backdrop of variable weather patterns in the Black Sea and Central Europe—critical global sunflower regions—while bearish signals persist in kernels and seed prices from Bulgaria, Ukraine, and China.

After a softening in prices during late spring, sunflower product offers across Europe have now largely stabilized, yet remain under downward pressure from increasing new crop forecasts and large stocks in key origins. Market participants are closely watching weather risks, particularly as persistent wetness in parts of Russia and the EU contrasts with drier-than-average spells in Ukraine and the Balkans. Meanwhile, inventory data and speculative positioning point to the potential for both volatility and tactical opportunities. With seed quality, logistics, and geopolitical risks still shaping trader sentiment, the next weeks will be crucial in determining whether this upward price move marks the beginning of a sustained trend or merely a breather in a broader bear market.

📈 Prices: Recent Sunflower Market Prices

Exchange/Market	Contract/Product	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
SAFEX	Jun 2025	9,116	+1.10%	ZAR/t	Bullish
SAFEX	Jul 2025	9,192	+1.00%	ZAR/t	Bullish
SAFEX	Sep 2025	9,370	+1.11%	ZAR/t	Bullish
SAFEX	Dec 2025	9,565	+1.02%	ZAR/t	Bullish
Physical BG	Sunflower kernels, hulled chips (Sofia)	0.95	-24.60%	EUR/kg	Bearish
Physical BG	Sunflower kernels, hulled bakery (Sofia)	0.95	-25.78%	EUR/kg	Bearish
Physical DE	Sunflower kernels, hulled bakery (Hamburg)	1.05	-23.36%	EUR/kg	Bearish

Other origins: Ukraine (UA), Moldova (MD), China (CN) show sunflower seed prices mostly flat to slightly lower than last week, with some slight firming in certain categories.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Global 2024/25 supply forecasts increased modestly due to weather-improved yields in parts of Russia and EU, yet Ukraine’s hot and dry spring capped production hopes.
• Key exporters: Russia remains the dominant global supplier, with major harvest gains forecast if June-July rainfall remains adequate.
• Importers (EU, Turkey, China) are contending with large old-crop inventories, but demand for sunflower oil and meal remains steady.
• Crush demand: Stable in Europe, but Asian crushers are selectively buying, favoring contractual flexibility given volatile currency and freight conditions.

📊 Market Fundamentals and Drivers

• USDA & EU Reports: Last USDA report projected slight global stock rebuild but flagged weather as a persistent risk in Black Sea and Balkans.
• Acreage: Recent sowing progress in Russia and Ukraine is near average, though delayed in some southern Russian oblasts.
• Inventories: High year-end stocks in EU and Black Sea underpin current bearish sentiment in physical kernels/seed offers despite futures recovery.
• Speculation: Hedge funds and swap dealers trimmed net shorts on European contracts, suggesting some price bottoming.
• Geopolitical: Freight and insurance premiums for Black Sea shipments remain elevated, adding uncertainty for summer spot markets.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Sunflower Regions

Region	Current Weather	Outlook	Yield Impact
Southern Russia	Warm, scattered rainfall	Average summer rains forecast	Supportive
Ukraine (Central/East)	Dry, some heat	Risk of below-average rains	Watch for stress on flowering crops
Balkans/EU East	Mild, locally stormy	Unsettled next 10 days	Mostly neutral
South Africa	Cool, dry, post-harvest	Stable	N/A

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (mt)	Stocks (mt)	YoY Change (%)
Russia	17.1m	2.6m	+5%
Ukraine	13.2m	1.8m	-2%
EU	10.0m	1.9m	+3%
Turkey	2.3m	0.3m	-1%
Argentina	3.7m	0.5m	Flat

• Global production projected to rise slightly in 2025, but with significant intra-regional variability.
• Stock buildup may exert mild pressure unless demand surprises to upside.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical buyers: Consider short-window purchases in Eastern Europe; some further downside in kernels is possible if weather is benign.
• Processors/Oil crushers: Monitor spread versus competing oils (soy, rapeseed). Favor building cover for Q4 delivery in Russia and Bulgaria.
• Growers: Use spot market strength to commit a portion of new crop; retain some price flexibility ahead of pivotal July weather events.
• Speculators: Watch for triggered stops if SAFEX prices break above 9,600 ZAR/t. Short-term momentum favors long trades, but volatility will remain high.
• Logistics managers: Secure Black Sea freight slots promptly due to ongoing regional disruptions.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Expected Range	Forecast Sentiment
SAFEX (South Africa)	9,050 – 9,200 ZAR/t	Bullish/Stable
Bulgaria Physical (kernels)	0.93 – 0.96 EUR/kg	Weak, high stocks
Ukraine (seed, FCA Kyiv/Odesa)	0.51 – 0.54 EUR/kg	Downside pressure

Summary: Sunflower prices have rebounded on local exchanges and may continue to rise if weather conditions in the Black Sea deteriorate, but old-crop pressure and ample stocks keep hand-to-mouth trading widespread. Market activity is expected to be choppy with sudden reactions to summer weather updates and geopolitical news.