Sunflower Market Pulse: Kernel Pressures, South African SAFEX Trends & Global Offers

The international sunflower market is at an inflexion point, shaped by persistent price pressures, divergent trends in kernels and seeds, and volatile grower sentiment. South Africa’s SAFEX sunflower futures have recorded mild declines across contracts, amplifying market nervousness amid growing supply-side uncertainties. Producers of hulled, edible kernels report mounting anxieties as oversupply meets lacklustre demand, especially for forward contracts. In Europe, new crop shelled sunflower kernels are being offered at rates as low as EUR 0.83/kg delivered, reflecting competition for sales well ahead of harvest. Yet, market veterans recall contract renegotiations and delivery shortfalls during previous years’ tightening, highlighting the precarious balance between attractive forward prices and the risk of supply disruptions should adverse weather shrink sunflower seed yields.

On the international stage, prices for Ukrainian and Chinese sunflower seeds diverge, with Ukrainian offers holding steady while Chinese quotes edge lower. Production prospects hinge on mid-season weather forecasts, particularly in Ukraine, Russia, and the EU, where rains and temperatures over the next weeks will determine kernel quality and crush volumes. This period of supply recalibration, speculative caution, and weather anxiety demands agility, with traders watching for cues from global stocks, new crop fundamentals, and risk signals from the South African exchange.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange/Region	Product	Latest Close	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
SAFEX (South Africa)	Sunflower Seed (Jun 25)	8,851	-29	ZAR/t	Bearish: -0.33%
SAFEX (South Africa)	Sunflower Seed (Jul 25)	8,982	-14	ZAR/t	Bearish: -0.16%
China, FOB	Sunflower Seeds (Black, 98%)	1.33	-0.05	USD/kg	Softening
China, FOB	Hulled Kernels (Confection, 99.95%)	0.92	+0.02	USD/kg	Firm
Ukraine, FOB	Sunflower Seeds (Black, 98%)	0.57	0	USD/kg	Stable
EU/DE (Deliv.)	Kernels (Bakery, Bul.)	1.08	0	EUR/kg	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• South Africa: SAFEX futures show mild weekly losses with limited buying interest, reflecting both harvest progression and export hesitancy.
• Europe: New crop kernel offers from producers at EUR 0.83/kg illustrate growing competition; sellers aim to guarantee offtake amid uncertain harvest volumes.
• Ukraine: Seed and kernel prices are broadly stable, but the region faces weather volatility through late June and early July.
• Global Demand: A general slowdown in kernel offtake, especially from the confectionery segment, contrasts with relatively steady oilseed crush demand.
• Historical Delivery Risks: In years of poor European or Black Sea harvests, Suppliers have previously renegotiated or failed to fulfil early contracts—an ongoing risk if the 2025 yield disappoints.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventory: Preliminary 2025 global sunflower stocks are expected to be slightly above 2024, but sizable regional deficits could emerge if weather turns adverse in the Black Sea basin.
• Acreage: Ukraine and Russia maintain strong planted area, but dryness in parts of southern Russia poses a yield threat.
• Speculative Positioning: Commercials hold a risk-off stance. Little speculative length is apparent on SAFEX and European exchanges following mid-season volatility in 2024.

Country	2025 (Est) Production (Mt)	Stocks YoY Change
Ukraine	16.0	Up
Russia	17.0	Down
EU	10.5	Flat
Argentina	3.5	Up
South Africa	0.9	Flat

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Regional Impact

• Ukraine/Black Sea: Rains expected mid-June, but late sowing areas remain vulnerable to heat spikes. Watch for July weather risks to kernel fill.
• Russia: Southern oblasts reported below-average soil moisture, risking reduced yields; thunderstorms may bring relief but also localised hail damage.
• EU: Favourable for now; western production regions have good moisture, but a heat surge could stress crops at flowering in July.
• South Africa: Season complete; new crop prospects await first mid-winter forecasts as buyers remain defensive.

🌐 Global Price Comparison – Key Offers

Origin	Product	Type	Purity	Delivery	Price	Prev. Price
China	Sunflower Seeds	Black	98%	FOB Beijing	1.33 USD/kg	1.38
China	Hulled Kernels (Confection)	99.95%	FOB Beijing	0.92 USD/kg	0.90
Ukraine	Sunflower Seeds	Black	98%	FOB Odesa	0.57 USD/kg	0.57
Bulgaria	Sunflower Kernels (Bakery)	99.98%	FCA Sofia	0.93 EUR/kg	1.00
EU (DE)	Kernels (Bakery, Bul.)	99.99%	FCA Germany	1.08 EUR/kg	1.08

💡 Market Drivers This Week

• Fresh offers for 2025 new crop kernels at below EUR 0.90/kg delivered in Europe set short-term price tone.
• Memories of 2024/25 contract disputes are influencing buyer caution for early forward contracts.
• Stable Ukrainian and Russian cash prices despite some local weather anxiety.
• Chinese seed prices are softening, drawing attention from both EU and MENA importers.

📆 Trading Outlook & Actionable Advice

• Buyers: Consider staggered purchases for Q3 and Q4 2025, especially for unshelled seeds, to hedge weather risks in the Black Sea.
• Sellers: Defensive selling recommended if locking forward positions—avoid overcommitting at today’s historically low delivered kernel prices unless covered by firm seed supply contracts.
• Processors: Monitor spreads between seed and kernel offers; attractive margins in regions with steady kernel demand.
• Speculators: Short-term momentum favours further downside, but prolonged dry weather in Russia/Ukraine could trigger a risk rally from July if forecasts worsen.

📊 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Product	Current Price	Forecast Range	Currency	Direction
SAFEX (South Africa)	Sunflower Seed (Jul 25)	8,982	8,900 – 9,050	ZAR/t	Weak/Bearish
FOB China	Sunflower Seeds (Black, 98%)	1.33	1.31 – 1.35	USD/kg	Softening
FOB Ukraine	Sunflower Seeds (Black, 98%)	0.57	0.56 – 0.58	USD/kg	Stable
Europe (DE)	Kernels (Bakery, Bul.)	1.08	1.06 – 1.10	EUR/kg	Steady