Sunflower Market: SAFEX Softens While Black Sea Tensions Support Oil Values
Concise September 2026 sunflower market update: SAFEX futures ease on harvest pressure while Black Sea export risks keep oil and seed values supported.
Prices
On SAFEX, sunflower seed futures closed lower on 22 September 2026, with Sep 26 at 9,942 ZAR/t (-0.28% d/d) and Dec 26 at 10,014 ZAR/t (-0.67% d/d), while the Mar 27 contract slipped to 9,650 ZAR/t (-0.52% d/d). Nearby SAFEX levels around 10,000 ZAR/t confirm that the market has softened from late‑August peaks but remains historically firm for this time of year.
In physical EUR markets, indicative seed and product quotations are broadly steady to slightly lower. Black sunflower seeds 98% purity FCA Odesa (UA) are quoted at 0.44 EUR/kg, with FOB Odesa seeds at 0.583 EUR/kg. In Bulgaria, black sunflower seeds 98% FCA Sofia are at 0.44 EUR/kg and striped sunflower seeds 98% FOB Sofia at 0.74 EUR/kg. Hulled bakery sunflower kernels FCA Sofia trade at 0.929 EUR/kg, while confection kernels are at 1.16 EUR/kg.
Crude sunflower oil CPT Odesa shows some recent volatility: the quotation moved from 1.12 EUR/kg on 3 September down to 1.049 EUR/kg on 9 September, before recovering to 1.176 EUR/kg on 17 September and 1.088 EUR/kg on 18 September. This reflects a tug‑of‑war between strong Black Sea export values in USD and harvest‑driven seed availability in local currency terms.
| Product | Origin / Term | Current price (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil, crude | UA, CPT Odesa | 1.088 |
| Sunflower seeds, black 98% | UA, FCA Odesa | 0.44 |
| Sunflower seeds, striped 98% | BG, FOB Sofia | 0.74 |
| Sunflower kernels, bakery hulled | BG, FCA Sofia | 0.929 |
| Sunflower kernels, bakery hulled | UA, FCA Dnipro | 0.9 |
Supply & Demand
South African sunflower seed supply for 2026/27 looks adequate, with official balance sheets projecting comfortable crush volumes and minimal deficits, helping to cap SAFEX prices near 10,000 ZAR/t despite a weaker rand and firm global oilseed values.
In the Black Sea, Ukraine and Russia are heading into what market analysts describe as a record or near‑record sunflower seed crop for 2026/27, with expectations for a 15% increase in combined sunflower oil and equivalent exports. However, repeated attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure, including major sunflower oil terminals, continue to constrain effective export capacity and shift part of the logistics burden to alternative routes, sustaining a structural risk premium.
Within the EU, the Commission projects a three‑year high sunflower seed harvest around 9.6 million tonnes for 2026, but localised summer heat and dryness have trimmed yield potential in some southern and central member states. This mix of larger production but uneven quality and regional deficits maintains steady intra‑EU trade flows and keeps demand for competitively priced Black Sea seed and oil intact.
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Weather & Harvest
Ukraine is currently in the main sunflower harvest window, which typically runs from September into October. Recent assessments highlight a significant rainfall deficit across several key producing regions during late seed fill and early harvest, raising concerns about moisture stress and potentially lower oil accumulation as well as variable test weights.
So far, weather‑related damage appears patchy rather than systemic, with better conditions in parts of eastern and northern zones. Nonetheless, the combination of dryness and ongoing security risks around ports keeps the market focused on realised yields and actual export flows rather than headline crop size.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- SAFEX futures softening: Sunflower contracts on SAFEX have eased modestly in recent sessions, with Dec 26 settling at 10,014 ZAR/t and nearby spot indications around 9,900–10,000 ZAR/t, reflecting harvest pressure and comfortable domestic supply.
- Black Sea export uncertainty: Damage to Ukrainian port infrastructure and ongoing security incidents in the Black Sea continue to limit sunflower oil export capacity, maintaining firmer USD‑denominated FOB values and underpinning CPT and FOB quotes in Ukraine.
- Vegetable oil balance: High but tightening global vegetable oil stocks, combined with strong sunflower oil demand in Europe and MENA, keep crushers bidding for seed even as the new crop arrives, preventing a deeper price correction.
- Product spreads: Bakery‑grade hulled kernels in Bulgaria and Ukraine are trading around 0.9–0.93 EUR/kg, while confection grades command a clear premium at 1.16 EUR/kg, indicating resilient demand in snack and bakery channels.
Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)
- Crushers / Processors: Use current SAFEX softness and steady seed offers (0.44 EUR/kg FCA for black seeds in UA/BG) to extend coverage into Q4, but avoid over‑hedging given harvest and logistics risks in the Black Sea that could later ease.
- Importers / Buyers: For crude sunflower oil CPT Black Sea, stagger purchases rather than fully front‑loading. Recent swings between 1.049 and 1.176 EUR/kg show that short‑term volatility is high around export news and harvest results.
- Producers: In South Africa, consider incremental hedging on further rallies above current SAFEX levels if basis and yields prove better than expected. In the Black Sea, on‑farm storage where available may capture potential post‑harvest basis improvement if export routes stabilise.
3‑Day Price Indication
- SAFEX sunflower seed (ZAR/t): Sideways to slightly softer around the 9,900–10,100 ZAR/t band as harvest pressure persists but no major macro shock is evident.
- Black Sea sunflower seeds (EUR/kg): Largely stable for UA/BG black seeds near current FCA/FOB quotations, with only minor day‑to‑day adjustments expected.
- Crude sunflower oil Black Sea (EUR/kg): Range‑bound but volatile; values likely to oscillate within the recent band defined by 1.049–1.176 EUR/kg CPT Odesa, tracking both freight/logistics news and competing vegoil markets.