Sunflower Market Shifts: Weather Risks and New Highs Drive Price Action

The global sunflower market is entering a period of heightened volatility and opportunity, marked by upward trends in oilseed prices and intensified weather-related risks across major producing regions. In June 2025, sunflower prices on SAFEX have continued their climb, driven by persistent dryness in Kazakhstan (Flaxseeds) and Ukraine, two of the world’s critical producers. This has sparked anxiety among traders about the next harvest, fueling bullish sentiment even as spot and forward contract volumes reflect a cautious optimism. Concurrently, China’s stable demand has sustained price momentum for both sunflower seeds and kernels, although origins such as Ukraine and Bulgaria show nuanced softening or stabilisation in their spot levels.

Against this backdrop, market participants must weigh both macro and weather risks, monitor shifting export flows, and assess the implications of global weather disruptions on production, stocks, and forward pricing strategies. Sunflower buyers, sellers, and processors are all navigating a market entering the northern hemisphere’s critical growing season, where each weather report and geopolitical adjustment can swing prices sharply one way or another.

📈 Prices

Contract (SAFEX)	Closing Price (ZAR/t)	Weekly Change (%)	Volume	Sentiment
Jun 25	9016	+0.73	226	Bullish
Jul 25	9100	+0.59	802	Bullish
Sep 25	9266	+0.05	239	Stable
Dec 25	9467	+0.26	405	Bullish

 

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery (Term)	Price (USD/kg)	Prev. Price (USD/kg)	Update Date
Sunflower Seeds, black, 98%	China	Beijing	FOB	1.34	1.33	2025-06-10
Sunflower Kernels, conf., 99.95%	China	Beijing	FOB	0.94	0.92	2025-06-10
Sunflower Kernels, bakery, 99.95%	China	Beijing	FOB	0.96	0.96	2025-06-10
Sunflower Seeds, black, 98%	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.56	0.57	2025-06-05
Sunflower Seeds, black, 98%	Bulgaria	Sofia	FOB	0.54	0.54	2025-05-27

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Production Risks: Kazakhstan and Ukraine face severe dryness, raising uncertainty about the autumn 2025 harvest and supporting price gains.
• Export Flows: Ukraine’s FOB sunflower seed prices have eased slightly, indicating export competition, but internal prices are kept firm by crop worries.
• China: Chinese import demand remains robust, especially for both industrial and food-grade kernels, keeping FOB prices for premium seed and kernel types near recent highs.

📊 Fundamentals

• Stocks: Global stocks for sunflower seeds finished Q2 at moderate levels, with Ukrainian carryover lower due to high export pace and reduced 2024 plantings.
• Acreage: Preliminary plantings in Ukraine and Russia are below last year’s due to adverse weather and logistical constraints.
• Speculative Positioning: Rising interest by funds and speculative traders on SAFEX, reflecting a bullish outlook linked to weather risk and tightening stocks.

Country	Projected 2024/25 Prod. (MT)	Change YoY	Ending Stocks (MT)
Ukraine	13.1	-7%	2.0
Russia	16.0	0%	4.3
EU-27	10.9	+2%	1.1

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Kazakhstan: Persistent drought with no significant rain forecast over 7 days. Yield potential at risk, amplifying trade concerns.
• Ukraine: Mixed outlook; southeast remains dry, with slight scattered rainfall possible in the north. Crop stress is likely to impact output.
• Russia: European Russia faces mild drought, but recent showers brought localised relief. Yield forecasts are stable, but risk persists.
• EU: Central/Eastern Europe has seen intermittent rains; generally favourable for sunflowers, though not enough to offset Black Sea risks.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Consider covering Q3/Q4 needs early amid heightened weather risk. Watch Black Sea origin offers for supply/demand shifts.
• Sellers: Hold for further upside if drought persists, but monitor for signs of price peaking as harvest approaches inthe  northern hemisphere.
• Speculators: Bullish bias, but anticipate swings based on weather volatility and potential for swift price reversals.
• Processors: Lock forward margins where possible; monitor China and EU buying for short-term arbitrage opportunities.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Spot Price	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
SAFEX (ZAR/t)	9100	9150 – 9250	Bullish, weather-driven
CN FOB (USD/kg)	1.34	1.33 – 1.36	Stable
UA FOB (USD/kg)	0.56	0.55 – 0.58	Cautious, weather-dependent