Sunflower Market Squeezed by Ample Supply, Weak Demand & Volatile Weather

The sunflower market is experiencing subtle turbulence as recent price declines reflect both ample regional supply and unsteady global demand. Sunflower seeds and kernels, particularly from key origins like Ukraine and Bulgaria, have posted notable price drops in the last week. South Africa’s SAFEX contracts also closed lower, indicating persistent bearishness. Meanwhile, European and Ukrainian FOB and FCA offers are under mild pressure, with Ukrainian black sunflower seeds (98% purity) now trading at EUR 0.55/kg FOB Odesa, down from EUR 0.56 just days prior. Macro drivers still include oversupply in Eastern Europe, soft crush margins for processors, tepid demand from major importers (including the EU and China), and heightened speculative activity.

Weather in the Black Sea region and South Africa—a crucial determinant for crops—remains highly variable, with forecasts showing both pockets of beneficial rainfall and areas facing hot, dry spells. USDA acreage estimates and updated inventory data are expected to set the tone for the coming weeks, as traders keep an eye on global stocks and export flows. For participants, pricing remains on a knife’s edge, with pressures mainly on the downside unless adverse weather conditions or export bottlenecks spark a short-term rally. Volatility is likely to persist through the next planting and harvest cycles.

📈 Prices

 

Contract/Origin	Type	Location (Country/City)	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg or ZAR/t)	Previous	Change	Sentiment
SAFEX Jun 25	Futures	S. Africa	–	9,058 ZAR/t	9,116	-0.64%	Bearish
SAFEX Jul 25	Futures	S. Africa	–	9,124 ZAR/t	9,192	-0.75%	Bearish
UA (Odesa)	Seeds, black, 98%	UA/Odesa	FOB	0.55 EUR/kg	0.56	-1.8%	Weak
UA (Odesa)	Kernels, meal	UA/Odesa	FOB	0.54 EUR/kg	0.55	-1.8%	Weak
UA (Kyiv)	Seeds, black, 98%	UA/Kyiv	FCA	0.54 EUR/kg	0.54	0.0%	Steady
BG (Sofia)	Kernels, hulled bakery	BG/Sofia	FCA	0.95 EUR/kg	1.28	-25.8%	Bearish
DE (Hamburg)	Kernels, hulled bakery	BG/DE	FCA	1.05 EUR/kg	1.37	-23.4%	Bearish
MD (DE)	Seeds, black, 98%	MD/DE	FCA	0.46 EUR/kg	0.46	0.0%	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Black Sea region supplies remain ample, especially in Ukraine and Russia, following record harvests. This exerts downward pressure on physical prices and futures alike.
• Demand from the EU and China remains subdued as crushers and food processors cope with adequate stocks and weak biodiesel margins.
• Import restrictions in some EU countries continue to limit sunflower seed flows from Ukraine.
• South African production is forecast to be around average, but logistical disruptions and softer domestic demand keep futures under pressure.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports & Crop Acreage: 2024/25 global sunflower seed acreage is flat year-on-year, with Ukraine’s area slightly lower but offset by increases in Russia and minor gains in the EU.
• Global Inventories: Stocks are expected to remain high, though ending stocks may decline slightly if Black Sea exports remain robust. China’s reserve buying is yet to pick up pace.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money and funds continue to hold short positions in major sunflower-linked markets.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Variable weather with showers in central and eastern regions, but dryness persists in southern oblasts. Potential for localised yield stress if hot, dry pattern extends into late June.
• Russia: Mostly favourable weather for maturing crops, though the Volga region faces occasional hot spells.
• EU (Romania, Bulgaria): Expect near-normal rainfall, supporting average crop prospects.
• South Africa: Warm, mostly dry conditions with isolated showers. No major production threats at present, but monitor for frost risk in July.

🗺️ Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. (mln t)	2024/25 Stocks (mln t)
Ukraine	15.8	1.2
Russia	17.5	2.3
EU	10.1	0.7
Argentina	3.5	0.4
China	2.8	0.9
South Africa	0.8	0.05

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued price softness for spot and nearby contracts due to plentiful supply and weak demand.
• Watch for weather-driven volatility in Ukraine and Russia—any drought scare could trigger a short-term price spike.
• Crushers: Consider forward cover as margin risk is likely to persist if seed prices rally later in the summer.
• Producers: Hold off on large spot sales unless weather deteriorates or export premiums widen.
• Importers: Take advantage of dips for strategic restocking; monitor EU regulation shifts and shipping conditions.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Spot Price	Forecast Trend	Comment
SAFEX (South Africa, Jul 25)	9,124 ZAR/t	Lower to steady	Continued supply pressure, weak local demand
Ukraine (FOB Odesa)	0.55 USD/kg	Steady to slightly lower	Bearish unless weather shifts
Bulgaria (FCA Sofia)	0.49-0.95 USD/kg*	Steady	Range depends on product/purity

*Actual price depends on grade and product type.