Sunflower Market Update: Weather Risks Loom, Prices Stable Despite Lower Yields

The global sunflower market entered the 2025 summer season under the shadow of challenging weather conditions. Reports from key producing regions in China indicate a poor emergence rate due to unfavourable weather during seeding, with approximately a 30% reduction in crop stands. While such a reduction typically foreshadows tighter supplies and potential price hikes, the expectation is for muted price volatility through the low-demand summer period. Buyers and sellers are watching closely: the 7–8 month window will provide a more concrete outlook for the new crop.

Notably, this week, Tianjin and Dalian ports in China saw confectionery-grade sunflower kernels quoted in the range of USD 1,030–1,060/tonne, with bakery-grade in a similar band (USD 1,020–1,080/tonne). European and Black Sea exporters remain competitive, with ongoing adjustments in origination as the season progresses. The interplay between diminished output and soft seasonal demand shapes today’s stable, slightly cautious outlook for global sunflower prices.

📈 Prices: Current Sunflower Market Snapshot

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Last Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price	Market Sentiment
Sunflower kernels (chipped)	BG	Sofia	Hulled, Chips	99.95%	0.95	1.26	Bearish/Stabilising
Sunflower kernels (bakery)	BG	Sofia	Hulled, Bakery	99.95%	0.95	1.28	Bearish/Stabilising
Sunflower kernels (bakery)	DE (BG origin)	Hamburg	Hulled, Bakery	99.99%	1.05	1.37	Bearish/Stabilising
Sunflower kernels (bakery)	UA	Dnipro	Hulled, Bakery	99.98%	0.99	1.00	Stable
Sunflower kernels (bakery)	BG	Berlin	Hulled, Bakery	99.99%	1.08	1.08	Neutral
Sunflower seeds (black)	UA	Odesa	Black	98%	0.56	0.57	Stable
Sunflower seeds (black)	BG	Sofia	Black	98%	0.49	0.48	Neutral/Modestly Bullish
Sunflower kernels (confection)	BG	Sofia	Hulled, Confection	99.98%	1.15	1.15	Stable
Sunflower seeds (black)	MD	Rheinfelden Herten	Black	98%	0.46	0.46	Stable
Sunflower kernels (chips)	BG	Sofia	Hulled, Chips	99.98%	0.89	0.89	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• China: Weather damage led to poor crop emergence (down 30%), risking a downward revision of total output if the trend persists toward harvest.
• Europe & Black Sea: Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Moldova remain prominent exporters. Production in Ukraine is showing modest resilience given secure Black Sea routes, but remains at risk from erratic rainfall.
• Demand: Seasonally weak. Summer slowdown in snacking/sweets and bakery categories softens upward price pressure despite a tighter supply outlook.
• Trade: Competitive offers from EU/Black Sea origin support buyer leverage; Chinese and EU importers are cautious, awaiting new crop signals before restocking heavily.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA & Local Reports: No drastic change in global sunflower seed inventory, but watch Eastern Europe’s harvest—first major data due in July.
• Speculators: Net short bias softening as production worries mount, but lacking bullish conviction until clearer supply damage is quantified.
• Inventories: Carry-in stocks moderate, not enough to buffer severe output losses if China sees further setbacks.
• Currency: Dollar strength marginally bearish for global prices (USD-denominated exports), but domestic offers are holding steady in local currencies.

🌤️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• China: Seasonal rainfall has been below average; forecast points to scattered precipitation, but not enough to fully offset the early deficit. Crop stress and yield risk remain elevated into July.
• Ukraine, Moldova: Weather mixed—northern regions drier, south sees localised storms. The next 2 weeks are critical for flowering; risk of yield penalties if the dry spell persists.
• Bulgaria/Romania: Temperatures above average, but soil moisture adequate—current conditions support good kernel fill; heat spike risk remains into July.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output Estimate (mmt)	Stock Trend
Ukraine	13.5	Stable-Slightly Down
Russia	15.8	Stable
Argentina	4.6	Stable
EU-27	10.0	Slightly Up
China	2.8*	Down (-30% from trend)
Turkey	1.8	Stable

*China’s figure is a working projection due to weather-related early loss.

📆 Outlook & Strategy

• Buyers: Cover short-term needs; monitor July weather/crop tours for China/Ukraine. Consider locking forward coverage if early summer dryness persists.
• Exporters: Monitor crop progress, be flexible with offers as the stock-consumption ratio tightens locally.
• Speculators: Wait for confirmation of further output downgrades to establish any new long positions; volatility may rise sharply if July weather remains adverse.
• New Crop: Watch August harvest prospects, especially for confection and bakery kernels. Early commitments may pay dividends in supply-constrained segments.

🗓️ 3-Day Price Prognosis (Key Exchanges & Ports)

Exchange/Port	Product	Currency	Today	+1 Day	+2 Day	+3 Day
Tianjin/Dalian	Kernels (Candy/Bakery)	USD/t	1040	1040	1035	1035
Sofia (BG)	Kernels (Hulled, Bak.)	USD/kg	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94
Hamburg	Kernels (Bakery)	USD/kg	1.05	1.05	1.04	1.03
Kyiv/Odesa	Black Seeds	USD/kg	0.55	0.55	0.54	0.54

Forecast: Minor downward bias; prices likely to hold firm due to competing drivers of weak demand and deteriorating output outlook.