Sunflower Seed Market Analysis: Stabilizing Prices Amid Global Supply Shifts

Sunflower seed markets are entering a period of stabilisation after a dynamic first half of the year, characterised by fluctuating supply from Black Sea origins and an active trading pace in Europe. Recent price moves suggest a market that is searching for a new equilibrium: after several weeks of price erosion driven by improved weather conditions and strong Russian/Ukrainian exports, FOB quotes for Ukrainian-origin product have shown subtle signs of bottoming out. Meanwhile, end-user demand from Europe remains robust but increasingly price-sensitive, as processors closely monitor stock coverage and anticipate the upcoming harvest.

Competitive offers from Bulgaria and Moldova add to the supply landscape, while logistical concerns and regional weather uncertainties lend ongoing volatility to spot and forward prices. The SAFEX Sunflower futures market in South Africa signals a slight upward bias, further underpinning global market sentiment. Short-term weather patterns in Ukraine and the Black Sea are largely favourable, although July heat waves could trim yield potential. Overall, the sunflower market is at an inflexion point, with buyers and sellers weighing current fundamentals against the backdrop of volatile global oilseed markets.

📈 Prices: Sunflower Market Summary

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Change (%)	Update
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	Ukraine	Odesa (FOB)	FOB	0.53	0.54	-1.9%	2025-07-04
Sunflower kernels (meal)	Ukraine	Odesa (FOB)	FOB	0.52	0.53	-1.9%	2025-07-04
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	Ukraine	Kyiv (FCA)	FCA	0.55	0.55	0.0%	2025-07-03

SAFEX Sunflower Futures (ZAR/ton)

Contract	Last	Close	Change (ZAR)	Change (%)	Volume
Jul 25	9500	9508	+20	+0.21%	210
Aug 25	9577	9577	+24	+0.25%	0
Sep 25	9700	9708	+14	+0.14%	118
Dec 25	9876	9907	+33	+0.33%	150
Mar 26	9642	9642	0	0.00%	0

Sentiment: Cautiously Firmer on SAFEX, Mildly Bearish FOB Black Sea

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: The USDA recently confirmed higher-than-anticipated sunflower seed inventories in Ukraine and steady planting progress. No major surprises in global oilseed S&Ds this week.
• Black Sea Exports: Ukraine and Russia remain dominant in world sunflower exports, with ongoing strong flows, underpinned by robust 2024/25 crop estimates and stabilised logistics.
• European Demand: EU crushers are maintaining firm demand but at lower bids, citing ample short-term coverage and anticipation of harvest pressure in Aug/Sep.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds have begun modest short-covering after price declines, while commercial hedgers remain well-protected.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• Global Production 2024/25: Ukraine’s sowings (approx. 5.4 M ha) were completed slightly ahead of schedule; weather so far supports expectation for a crop above 14 Mt. Russia holds steady at ~16.5 Mt (est.), EU output is expected at around 9.5 Mt.
• Global Stocks: Ukraine holds the largest carryout, providing a buffer for FOB markets, but much depends on the weather in the coming weeks.
• Major Importers: India and the EU remain the largest importers, with active procurement mainly from Black Sea origins.

Country	Est. 2024/25 Production (Mt)	Est. Carry-in Stocks (Mt)
Russia	16.5	2.2
Ukraine	14.1	2.8
EU	9.5	1.0
Argentina	3.5	0.6

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Ukraine: Recent rains replenished topsoil moisture. Models signal above-average temperatures in early July, but no acute drought concern yet. The flowering phase in key regions is underway.
• Russia: Mild start to July, with intermittent rains. Favourable for yield formation across the Volga and southern districts.
• EU: Mixed outlook—Central Europe remains on the dry side, while Bulgaria and Romania report adequate rainfall for now.
• Argentina: Mild and generally favourable winter so far. No impact on current global traded flows.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Slow further sales at current price levels. The downside appears limited as harvest approaches and demand remains steady.
• Monitor weather developments in Ukraine and Russia, especially July heatwaves.
• Consider locking in basis offers if attractive spreads are available from Black Sea and EU origins.
• Short-term buyers may secure partial coverage before Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure in August/September.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast

• FOB Ukraine (Odesa): EUR 0.52–0.54/kg (sideways to slightly weaker)
• SAFEX Sunflower (Jul 25): ZAR 9480–9530/ton (steady/firmer bias)
• EU Ex-Works (Bulgaria/Sofia): EUR 0.49–0.53/kg (stable; competitive offers persist)