Thai Export Slowdown Shifts Power in a Softer Global Rice Market

Thailand’s rice market is under pressure as exports in January–April 2026 fell 12% year on year to about 2.2 million tonnes, with revenue down to roughly USD 1.25 billion. At the same time, India and Vietnam are leveraging more competitive prices and ample supply, further eroding Thailand’s share in key price-sensitive markets. Global rice consumption remains solid, but trade flows are being rerouted. Thailand’s sales to Iraq and other Middle Eastern buyers have dropped sharply, partially offset by stronger demand from Africa and Asian destinations like Malaysia and the Philippines. India and Vietnam are stepping into this gap with lower FOB offers, while weather risks and rising input costs leave Thailand vulnerable to further export losses.

Prices

FOB offers from India and Vietnam indicate a broadly stable to slightly softer price environment over June, with only limited week-on-week movement and modest easing compared with mid-June. Indian non-basmati steam rice in New Delhi is quoted around EUR 0.34–0.71/kg FOB (e.g., PR11 steam near EUR 0.34/kg; 1121 steam around EUR 0.71/kg), while basmati and organic lines remain at a premium, up to about EUR 1.62/kg FOB.

Vietnamese FOB quotes from Hanoi for mainstream long white 5% and Jasmine types hover near EUR 0.35–0.36/kg, with specialty segments (black, paper-dried) commanding substantially higher prices above EUR 0.85–1.65/kg. These levels align with recent reports of Vietnam’s 5% broken export price near USD 410–420/ton (about EUR 0.38–0.39/kg) after a small early-June rebound. 

Supply & Demand

Thailand’s export downturn is primarily driven by geopolitics rather than demand destruction. Shipments to Iraq and several other key Middle Eastern buyers have been disrupted by regional conflict and elevated freight and insurance costs. Between January and April 2026, exports totaled roughly 2.2 million tonnes, 12% below the previous year, and values fell in line with this volume drop.

Alternative demand from Africa (notably South Africa, Angola, Mozambique) and Asia (Malaysia, the Philippines) has increased, supported by food security concerns in an El Niño-affected environment. However, this has not fully replaced the lost Middle Eastern business, especially given Thailand’s relatively higher prices compared with India and Vietnam, which continue to capture a larger share of price-sensitive long-grain buyers. 

Production, Weather & Costs

Thailand’s domestic outlook is clouded by both weather and input costs. Although the 2026 rainy season officially began in mid-May, cumulative rainfall by end-May remained below the 30-year average, and major reservoirs in key rice-growing regions are estimated at only about 36% of capacity. This raises concerns over water availability for both the main and off-season crops and heightens yield risk if precipitation does not normalize over the next 1–2 months. 

At the same time, fertilizer imports into Thailand fell nearly 20% in January–April, lifting per-hectare production costs and squeezing farm margins. With global rice supplies currently comfortable, Thailand’s relatively high cost base limits its ability to discount aggressively without eroding profitability. This contrasts with India and Vietnam, which benefit from lower production costs and favorable currency dynamics, allowing them to undercut Thai offers in many tenders.

Short-Term Outlook & Weather Watch

Over the next 4–8 weeks, the key variable for Thailand will be monsoon performance. Forecasts point to continued rainfall deficits in parts of central and northeastern Thailand at least into early July, sustaining concerns about irrigation water allocation and potential area/yield adjustments. Any further delay in reservoir replenishment will reinforce expectations of tighter Thai export availabilities later in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Internationally, however, India and Vietnam are expected to maintain adequate exportable surpluses. Vietnam’s shipments are up in volume terms year to date, though average export prices have eased year on year, reflecting stiff competition. The recent uptick in Vietnam’s 5% broken rice quotes around USD 410–420/ton (approximately EUR 0.38–0.39/kg) signals that weather-driven supply worries are beginning to floor prices after the earlier pullback. 

Trading Signals

• Importers of long-grain white rice: Near-term purchasing opportunities exist outside Thailand, particularly from India and Vietnam, where FOB prices are competitive and relatively stable. Staggered buying over July could mitigate weather and freight headline risk.
• Buyers dependent on Thai origins: Consider diversifying origin mix or quality specifications, as Thai export volumes are constrained and price discounts versus regional competitors are limited by high costs and uncertain production.
• Producers and exporters in Thailand: Lock in forward sales where margins are still positive, but avoid overcommitting new-crop volumes until reservoir levels and monsoon progress become clearer.

3-Day Directional Price View (EUR, FOB)

• India (New Delhi, non-basmati steam): Around EUR 0.34–0.71/kg, bias: sideways with mild downside risk if freight or currency ease.
• India (New Delhi, basmati/organic): Around EUR 1.33–1.62/kg, bias: sideways; niche demand and quality premiums remain intact.
• Vietnam (Hanoi, long white & fragrant): Around EUR 0.35–0.36/kg for mass-market grades, bias: slightly firm following recent recovery in 5% broken export quotations.