Thai–Vietnam Dried Pineapple Prices Hold Steady as El Niño Risk Looms

Dried pineapple prices from Thailand and Vietnam are flat this week, with Thai FCA Europe indications broadly stable and Vietnamese FOB offers steady but at a clear premium. Tight farmgate pineapple supply in Thailand and firm export demand from Vietnam underpin current levels, while El Niño-related weather risks are beginning to shape market sentiment for late-2026. Exporters in both Thailand and Vietnam report solid interest from global buyers for dried tropical fruits, with Vietnam actively positioning itself as a strategic dried-fruit hub and Thai suppliers benefiting from strong fresh and processed pineapple flows. Domestic campaigns in Thailand to boost fruit consumption and a generally firm fresh pineapple price environment support upstream raw material values, limiting room for discounts in dried formats. El Niño-linked concerns about below-average rainfall in parts of Thailand later in 2026 add a weather-risk premium, particularly for forward coverage.

Prices

Current spot indications for conventional dried pineapple remain unchanged compared with last week. Thai-origin material delivered into the Netherlands on FCA terms is trading lower than Vietnamese FOB offers, reflecting Vietnam’s move up the value chain into higher-spec soft and freeze-dried products. Overall, the market is in a sideways pattern, with buyers largely hand-to-mouth but no clear evidence of downside pressure.

Supply & Demand

Thailand’s pineapple sector is currently supported by firm fresh prices and robust overall fruit procurement, as retailers intensify domestic marketing of GI-certified pineapples from eastern regions. While the focus of current campaigns is fresh fruit, strong fresh offtake generally tightens raw material availability for processing and dried formats, helping to floor prices despite subdued spot buying from some EU customers.

Vietnam, meanwhile, is capitalising on its reputation for consistent dried-fruit quality, with several processors highlighting soft-dried and freeze-dried pineapple as key export products. Recent trade statistics show Vietnam’s dried-fruit exports (all products) continuing to grow in value, confirming solid international demand. Buyers are increasingly using Vietnam to diversify supply away from single-origin dependence, which helps maintain FOB offers at a premium to bulk Thai material.

Weather & Crop Outlook (TH, VN)

In Thailand, macro-level forecasts flag a high probability that El Niño will persist through the second half of 2026, with rainfall expected to stay below the long-term average and unevenly distributed. While current moisture conditions in key pineapple zones have not yet triggered acute stress, the risk of localized water shortages during the June–August growing period is rising, which could cap yields for later harvest windows and support a modest weather-risk premium in dried products.

Vietnam’s pineapple-growing areas are less directly exposed in current Thai-focused El Niño risk assessments, but regional climate volatility and tighter water management across ASEAN remain a concern. Exporters in Vietnam continue to signal reliable raw material access and stable processing operations, with no immediate weather-related disruptions reported in the last few days.

Fundamentals & Trade

Thailand’s broader export outlook for 2026 is positive, with authorities expecting an 8% rise in total shipments, driven mainly by higher-value sectors but also reflecting a generally supportive trade environment for agri-food. For pineapple, export statistics combining fresh and dried flows into key markets like South Korea confirm continued volume, although competition from other tropical fruits for land and investment is intensifying.

Vietnam is scaling up value-added dried fruits, including dried pineapple, as part of a wider shift into healthy snacks. Recent customs and trade data show a steady increase in dried-fruit export values over the past year, underscoring resilient demand despite global consumer caution. Regulatory tightening in major destination markets is pushing suppliers in both Thailand and Vietnam to emphasise certifications (BRC, FSSC, HACCP, Halal, Kosher), which helps support differentials for higher-spec lots.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Buyers (EU / Asia): With Thai FCA levels and Vietnamese FOB prices flat, near-term downside appears limited as long as fresh pineapple prices stay firm. Consider covering Q3 needs now, particularly for standard Thai dice, while keeping Q4 volumes flexible given El Niño uncertainty.
• Origin processors (TH): Maintain offer discipline; strong fresh demand and rising weather risks justify holding floors. Lock in forward contracts where buyers accept moderate premiums for assured volumes.
• Origin processors (VN): Leverage premium positioning (soft/freeze-dried pineapple, multi-certification) to defend prices rather than chase volume. Focus on long-term contracts with brand owners seeking diversified, non-Thai supply.

3‑Day Directional Price View (TH, VN)

• Thailand – FCA EU dried pineapple: Sideways to slightly firm over the next three days, supported by tight raw material and steady export interest.
• Vietnam – FOB dried pineapple: Stable; no immediate supply or logistics issues reported, and solid demand for value-added dried fruits supports current premiums.