Sesame prices firm on sharp Brazilian crop cuts, lower Indian and Pakistani sowing and limited old-crop supplies, despite comfortable Chinese port stocks.
Prices
Brazilian export offers for the new crop are quoted around USD 1,250–1,300 per tonne CNF, implying roughly EUR 1,150–1,200 per tonne depending on freight and FX, after a 36% rise since sowing. About 100,000 tonnes have already been sold forward, with China taking nearly 90% of these early commitments and Japan paying up for high-traceability lots.
In India, tight old-crop availability keeps mandi prices elevated. Using the given FX, the national average of USD 124.06 per quintal translates to roughly EUR 106–110 per 100 kg. Premium black sesame in Gujarat and Bareilly is trading substantially above this band, reflecting strong confectionery and export demand, while lower-quality material in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh trades at notable discounts.
FOB indications in New Delhi for hulled EU-grade sesame seeds currently cluster around EUR 1.43–1.46 per kg for 99.95–99.98% purity, with only marginal day-to-day easing visible in late July, suggesting that physical tightness is largely priced in for the near term.
Supply & Demand
Brazil’s 2026–27 sesame crop is projected at just 200,000–220,000 tonnes, a dramatic 50–60% decline versus last season as farmers shift land toward black mung beans and corn, and as irregular rainfall and delayed planting cap yields. This makes Brazil a much smaller swing supplier than in past years, especially for China and high-spec Asian buyers.
India’s kharif sesame area is estimated 14% below last year at 512,000 hectares, with Gujarat down an exceptional 76% to only 6,311 hectares. Limited old-crop arrivals, steady export flows, festive buying and resilient demand from oil mills are expected to support domestic prices until new-crop arrivals later in the season, effectively tightening exportable surpluses.
Pakistan adds another bearish factor for supply, with sesame acreage down 20–30% year on year due to competition from cotton and other crops. While crop development is described as generally favourable so far, the smaller planted area means export availability will remain constrained even under good weather, and China is expected to continue absorbing the bulk of these volumes.
On the demand side, China’s January–May 2026 sesame imports fell by more than 7% to around 595,000 tonnes, but Qingdao port stocks above 370,000 tonnes keep its near-term coverage comfortable. The United States imported 13,854 tonnes over the same period, down 4% year on year, with the average import price falling 16% to roughly EUR 1,770 per tonne, signalling that buyers locked in lower prices earlier in the year.
Turkey’s imports grew 13%, yet its average import price dropped 27% to about EUR 1,110 per tonne. High financing costs, elevated inventories and weak summer demand are curbing spot buying appetite there, suggesting that Turkey is unlikely to lead the next leg of any global rally until stocks normalize.
Fundamentals & Weather
The fundamental picture is dominated by origin-side tightening. Brazil’s acreage shift to alternative pulses and grains, combined with weather-linked yield losses, removes a substantial buffer from the export matrix. India’s area contraction, particularly in Gujarat, means that any weather shock during pod filling could quickly translate into further price spikes, especially for premium white and black grades.
For now, Pakistan’s crop is developing under broadly favourable conditions, which helps offset some of Brazil and India’s shortfall. However, the reduced planted area limits how much relief Pakistan can provide. With China holding ample port inventories and having already secured much of Brazil’s early shipments, the key medium-term risk shifts to how Indian and Pakistani new crops perform under the monsoon.
Monsoon variability and late-season rains will be crucial: well-distributed rainfall in August–September would help stabilize yields in India and Pakistan, tempering further upside. Conversely, any prolonged dry spell or flooding could rapidly tighten the balance and reignite strong import competition among China, Japan, the Middle East and Europe for high-quality sesame.
Outlook & Trading Guidance
- Price bias: Firm to moderately bullish into the 2026–27 season, as lower output in Brazil, India and Pakistan outweighs soft import demand from China, the US and Turkey.
- For importers: Consider layering in coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027, especially for premium white and black grades, while avoiding excessive front-loading given still-comfortable Chinese and Turkish inventories.
- For exporters/origin sellers: Use current firmness and Brazil’s 36% price rally as a reference to lock in forward sales, but retain some unpriced volume in case Indian and Pakistani weather turns adverse.
- For processors: Maintain slightly above-average raw seed stocks, prioritizing suppliers with strong traceability and food-safety credentials to capture any quality-related premiums, especially into Japan and the EU.