Tight Raw Pineapple, Firm Dried Prices: Thailand & Vietnam in Focus

Dried pineapple prices from Thailand and Vietnam are edging higher in mid‑June, supported by firmer raw fruit values and growing weather risks tied to a developing El Niño. Slight week‑on‑week gains signal a steady, not yet explosive, uptrend, but upside risk is building for Q3 contracts. Export‑oriented processors in Thailand and Vietnam face rising farmgate pineapple prices and mounting concerns over below‑normal rainfall in the coming months. Thai authorities are already adjusting national water‑management plans in anticipation of drier conditions later in 2026, while Vietnamese agencies warn of potential water shortages as El Niño consolidates. For now, near‑term supply for dried pineapple is adequate, but forward cover beyond the summer looks increasingly prudent for buyers, especially in the EU.

Prices & Market Tone

Indicative mid‑June market levels for standard, non‑organic dried pineapple:

Raw pineapple export values from Thailand are also firm, with recent assessments pointing to significantly higher unit export prices compared with previous years. This underpins a cautiously bullish tone for processed and dried products, even though spot availability in Europe remains comfortable for now.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Thailand remains a key global exporter of pineapple products, though aggregate export volumes in the broader pineapple category have declined sharply in recent years, reflecting both climate stress and shifting demand patterns. Current export statistics still show active flows in the combined fresh and dried pineapple segment, supporting steady offtake from European buyers.

Demand for dried pineapple in the EU appears resilient, with specialty retailers and online platforms continuing to feature dried pineapple and other tropical fruits as higher‑value snack ingredients. While the broader snack fruit category faces some consumer down‑trading, there is little immediate evidence of a demand shock that would offset weather‑driven supply risks from Southeast Asia.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TH, VN)

For Thailand, both national agencies and international forecasters now expect El Niño conditions to dominate the June–August 2026 period, implying below‑normal rainfall and uneven distribution across key agricultural regions. Authorities are already revising water‑management plans to mitigate potential shortages, highlighting elevated risk to fruit crops if the dry spell extends.

In Vietnam, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment warns that river flows and water levels have already been trending well below normal, and that El Niño could trigger more pronounced water shortages from mid‑2026 onward. Northern and central regions are oscillating between short heatwaves and heavy rain episodes, conditions that can stress pineapple fields and complicate disease management. Across Southeast Asia more broadly, agencies and research institutes flag an increased likelihood of drought‑type impacts on crops as El Niño strengthens through the second half of the year.

Fundamentals & Risk Factors

• El Niño escalation: Latest WMO and NOAA‑linked outlooks show an 80%+ probability of El Niño for June–August 2026, with national bodies in Thailand and Vietnam explicitly citing this as a major agricultural risk for the remainder of the year.
• Climate‑driven volatility: Analysts warn that strong El Niño events tend to bring hotter, drier conditions to much of Southeast Asia, raising the odds of lower fruit yields and higher processing costs due to irrigation and quality losses.
• Macro backdrop: Thai economic planners explicitly list El Niño‑related production risk among key threats to the agricultural sector in 2026, underlining the potential for tightening supplies in export crops if water stress intensifies.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading Suggestions

Weather, next 3 days (TH, VN): In Thailand’s main pineapple belt (eastern seaboard and central plains), forecasts for the coming days point to hot, humid conditions with typical scattered showers but no sustained rainfall relief, consistent with an early, still‑weak rainy season. Northern and central Vietnam face a short heatwave around June 13–14, followed by a transition back to more unsettled, locally rainy weather. Net impact on harvest operations over the next three days is modest, but cumulative heat stress remains a concern.

Price direction, next 3 days (indicative, EUR):

• TH dried pineapple FCA NL: Sideways to slightly firmer (+0–1%) as EU buyers show interest in topping up coverage while logistics remain smooth.
• VN dried pineapple FOB Hanoi: Stable to mildly higher (+0–1%) amid limited seller pressure to discount and growing focus on El Niño‑related risks.

Trading Outlook

• EU and UK buyers: Consider locking in a portion of Q3–Q4 needs at current Thai FCA levels around EUR 3.9–4.0/kg, as upside weather risk in Southeast Asia outweighs limited near‑term demand softness.
• Importers relying on Vietnam: Avoid being under‑covered beyond late Q3; Vietnamese water‑availability concerns argue for bringing forward at least part of your usual buying window.
• Origin processors (TH, VN): Monitor raw fruit procurement closely and review forward contracts, as any confirmed yield impact from El Niño could justify incremental price increases in coming weeks.