Turkey’s Bigger Sunflower Crop Shifts, But Does Not Break, Black Sea Dependence

Turkey’s 2026/27 sunflower crop is rising sharply, easing immediate oil import needs but keeping the country structurally dependent on Black Sea seed and oil supplies. Larger local seed availability will soften some import demand, yet robust crushing and export programmes ensure continued tight linkage to regional logistics and policy risks. Turkey’s sunflower seed production is forecast at 1.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, around 550,000 tonnes above last season, supported by favourable weather and a modest increase in planted area to 770,000 hectares. About 1.5 million tonnes are expected to go to crushing, 255,000 tonnes to confectionery use and 45,000 tonnes for planting, with roughly 60% of the harvest completed by mid‑September. Total seed consumption is projected at 3.4 million tonnes, implying sustained import needs despite the local rebound and ongoing disruptions and diversification in Black Sea trade flows.

Prices

Black Sea physical markets are currently signaling mixed but generally soft seed values against firmer oil quotations. In Ukraine, black sunflower seeds (98% purity, non-organic) are indicated at EUR 0.42 FCA Odesa and EUR 0.42 FCA Kyiv, down from EUR 0.44–0.45 earlier in September, while FOB Odesa seed is quoted at EUR 0.576 versus EUR 0.583 previously, confirming modest harvest pressure on seed prices. Moldovan-origin black sunflower seeds are at EUR 0.44 FCA Rheinfelden Herten, broadly stable over the month.

On the product side, Ukrainian crude sunflower oil is assessed at EUR 1.091 CPT Odesa, up from EUR 1.056 in mid‑September, while sunflower meal FOB Odesa has eased slightly to EUR 0.557 from EUR 0.564. Chinese sunflower seeds with stripe are quoted at EUR 1.40 FOB Beijing and confection kernels at EUR 1.04 FOB, both marginally firmer than mid‑month, suggesting some differentiation between Black Sea harvest pressure and steadier Asian confection demand.

Supply & Demand

Turkey’s sunflower seed balance for 2026/27 is tightening on the demand side even as production recovers. With output at 1.8 million tonnes, seed use is expected to reach around 3.4 million tonnes, leaving a sizeable gap to be met by imports. Sunflower seed imports are forecast at approximately 1.8 million tonnes, underlining that the country remains a major buyer despite the larger crop. Around 400,000 tonnes have already been contracted for September–November delivery, indicating active forward coverage early in the marketing year.

Black Sea disruptions have forced Turkish importers to diversify sourcing within the region, shifting part of their procurement from deep‑water ports to western Black Sea origins and river ports. Nevertheless, Black Sea countries will remain the dominant suppliers for both sunflower seed and oil. Turkey’s sunflower oil production is projected at about 1.4 million tonnes, with imports seen falling by roughly 360,000 tonnes to 840,000 tonnes, while exports are expected at a strong 1.07 million tonnes. This pattern highlights Turkey’s role as a refining and re‑export hub, structurally tying local crush margins and domestic prices to regional seed availability and freight conditions.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals for 2026/27 are shaped by three interacting forces: a larger Turkish crop, persistent import dependence, and evolving Black Sea logistics. Favourable growing conditions have supported yields in Turkey, allowing production to rise without a significant expansion in area. At the same time, regional supply is also improving, with independent estimates pointing to larger harvests in key Black Sea exporters, reinforcing the availability of seed for Turkish crushers but keeping competition for export slots high.

Logistical constraints and navigation risks in parts of the Black Sea continue to influence Turkish buying patterns, with increased interest in western Black Sea and river ports to secure seed flows. Weather risks for the remainder of the season are comparatively limited for Turkey’s 2026/27 crop, given that around 60% of the harvest was already complete by mid‑September, but attention will shift to winter moisture and planting conditions in neighbouring suppliers, which could affect export availability later in the marketing year.

Trading Outlook

• Turkish crushers: The combination of softer Black Sea seed prices and firmer crude oil values supports crush margins. Maintaining a diversified origin mix and securing logistics capacity from western Black Sea and river ports remains critical, particularly for nearby shipments.
• Exporters in Ukraine and other Black Sea origins: Current FCA/FOB seed levels (e.g. EUR 0.42 FCA and EUR 0.576 FOB for Ukrainian black sunflower seeds) are competitive for Turkish demand but face seasonal downside risk while the Turkish harvest peaks. Structured sales into Q4–Q1 may help lock in margins before potential freight or policy shocks.
• Food and snack industry buyers: With Turkish confection demand set at about 255,000 tonnes and Chinese confection seed and kernel prices edging higher, forward coverage in premium kernels looks prudent to hedge against tighter high‑spec supply as crush demand competes for raw material.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication

• Black Sea sunflower seeds (Ukraine FCA/FOB): Slightly downward to sideways bias as harvest selling continues and Turkish buying is partly covered for nearby.
• Crude sunflower oil CPT Black Sea: Sideways to mildly firmer, supported by strong Turkish export programmes and relatively better crush margins versus seed.
• Confection kernels (China FOB / EU FCA): Sideways to slightly upward, reflecting stable end‑use demand and limited harvest‑related pressure compared with crushing seeds.