Turkey Wheat Market Braces for Near-Record Harvest and Softer Import Needs

Turkey’s wheat market is shifting towards a supply-heavy 2026/27 season, with production seen up about 20% year-on-year and stocks rebuilding, while domestic prices remain broadly flat and still at a premium to Black Sea origins. Import needs for domestic use are set to shrink, keeping Turkey focused on wheat for flour exports under the inward processing regime.

Improved autumn and winter rainfall is driving a strong recovery in Turkish wheat production after last year’s drought-affected crop. Farmers expanded winter wheat area to 7.45 million hectares, especially in Southeastern Anatolia, encouraged by better price visibility from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and policy support for drought‑resistant crops. With 80% of wheat grown on dryland, adequate spring rains will be decisive for whether production merely reaches 19.8 MMT (second-highest on record) or challenges the historic 21.0 MMT high. At the same time, consumption is broadly flat and flour exports have not fully recovered, pointing to a more comfortable balance sheet and limited upside for domestic prices in the near term.

📈 Prices & Market Structure

Domestic milling wheat prices in Turkey have been remarkably steady in recent months. In March 2026, Anatolian hard red winter wheat traded at about 14,400 TL/MT (≈€327/MT at ~44 TL/EUR), only slightly above the 12,000 TL/MT (≈€325/MT) seen a year earlier despite higher production costs. This price stability reflects unchanged TMO sales prices into the local market and relatively stable Black Sea export values, which act as the key external benchmark.

TMO’s domestic purchase price for first‑class milling wheat continues to anchor the market, with recent intervention levels around 13,750 TL/MT (≈€313/MT). Turkish wheat therefore still trades at a premium to Russian 12.5% protein wheat, which in March was around $260/MT CIF (≈€239/MT), but local prices broadly follow the same directional trend. On global benchmarks, recent FOB wheat offers translate roughly into the following indicative price range:

Origin / Type	Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Approx. EUR/MT
US wheat, protein ≥11.5% (CBOT linked)	FOB	0.21	~€210
French wheat, protein ≥11.0%	FOB Paris	0.29	~€290
Ukrainian wheat, protein ≥11.0%	FOB Odesa	0.18	~€180

This keeps Black Sea wheat clearly competitive against Turkish-origin grain for importers, while domestic Turkish wheat remains largely focused on internal consumption and value-added exports (flour, pasta, bulgur).

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

For marketing year 2026/27 (June–May), Turkey’s wheat harvested area is projected to reach 7.45 million hectares, up 150,000 ha year-on-year. The expansion is driven by a notable switch from cotton to wheat in Southeastern Anatolia, supported by the Agricultural Production Plan, which rewards drought‑resistant and less water-intensive crops in water-scarce regions. Farmers’ strong preference for crops readily purchased by TMO provides an additional incentive.

Assuming average-to-good yields under the current wet bias, total wheat production is projected at 19.8 MMT, about 20% above the 16.5 MMT estimated for 2025/26. Some industry participants believe that if spring rains in March–May remain favorable, production could surpass the previous 21.0 MMT record. With beginning stocks at 2.52 MMT and imports forecast to decline to 6.5 MMT, total supply is expected to reach roughly 28.8 MMT in 2026/27.

Domestic consumption is relatively mature. Total wheat use is projected around 18.8 MMT in 2026/27, with food, seed, and industrial use accounting for about 18.0 MMT and feed/residual use nudging higher to 0.8 MMT as feed makers marginally increase wheat inclusion. Wheat consumption has plateaued due to slower population growth and dietary shifts among middle- and higher‑income households away from bread, even though Turkey remains a very high per‑capita bread consumer.

📊 Trade, Policy & Stocks

On the import side, Turkey remains a major buyer of milling wheat, but volumes are increasingly linked to its flour export program rather than domestic shortfalls. Wheat imports in 2026/27 are forecast at 6.5 MMT, down from 7.2 MMT in 2025/26. With a near‑record domestic harvest expected, imports will not be required for internal food use but will continue under inward processing to supply flour, pasta, and related exports.

In 2025/26, imports from June to January reached about 4.1 MMT, dominated by Russia (3.9 MMT) and Ukraine (~0.1 MMT). Meanwhile, exports of wheat and wheat products remain below their 2023/24 peak. For 2026/27, exports are projected at 6.5 MMT (grain equivalent), only slightly above the 6.3 MMT expected in 2025/26, as flour exporters still struggle to fully regain market share in key African and Middle Eastern markets after prior policy disruptions to inward processing imports.

Stocks are set to rebuild. Ending wheat inventories in 2026/27 are forecast to rise to about 3.5 MMT, from 2.5 MMT in 2025/26, equivalent to roughly two months of domestic consumption. TMO is expected to hold most of these stocks, reflecting its role as buyer of last resort and market stabilizer. The private sector, by contrast, continues to minimize on‑farm and commercial inventories in favor of higher‑yielding financial assets, limiting storage capacity outside TMO.

🌦️ Weather, Inputs & Production Risks

Precipitation between October 2025 and February 2026 was 24% above the long‑term average and 75% higher than the same period a year earlier, underpinning the sharp recovery in yield prospects. While localized flooding has been reported in the Southeast, Mediterranean, and Aegean regions, and some dryness complaints persist in parts of Thrace, these issues are not currently expected to materially affect national wheat output for 2026/27.

Input costs, however, have become a key uncertainty. The conflict in the Middle East has lifted fertilizer and fuel prices by around 25% month-on-month in March. The government responded by scrapping the 6.5% tariff on urea imports, banning urea exports, and temporarily suspending the ban on ammonium nitrate fertilizer until the end of May. Because most fertilizer for winter wheat was bought and applied before the latest price spike, the impact on 2026/27 wheat yields is expected to be limited. Should elevated input costs persist into the next planting cycle, though, some downside risk to yields and planted area could emerge.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Looking ahead to 2026/27, the Turkish wheat market is moving into a more comfortable supply position, with production near record levels, flat consumption, and only modest growth in exports. This combination points to a generally balanced-to‑soft domestic price environment, especially if TMO maintains its role as a supportive buyer while gradually rebuilding strategic stocks.

• For Turkish farmers: Consider forward-selling a portion of the expected 2026/27 harvest to lock in current intervention-linked price levels, especially in rain‑favored regions, while retaining some upside exposure in case of spring weather or geopolitical disruptions.
• For domestic millers and feed users: Use periods of harvest pressure and TMO sales programs to secure supply; with larger domestic availability and stable Black Sea prices, downside price risk in EUR terms appears limited but still favors opportunistic buying on dips.
• For exporters/traders: Monitor policy around inward processing closely; any renewed constraints on IPR wheat imports could again cap flour export volumes and weigh on domestic wheat prices, while a stable IPR regime supports steady import and re‑export flows.

📉 Short-Term Price Direction (Next 3 Days)

• Turkey domestic milling wheat (ex‑warehouse, TL basis, converted to EUR): Largely stable in EUR terms, with only minor downside risk as market participants await clearer signals on TMO’s new‑season procurement strategy.
• Black Sea 11–12.5% protein wheat (FOB, EUR): Expected to remain steady in a band around €180–€190/MT, keeping competitive pressure on Turkish export parity but offering attractive coverage opportunities for import‑dependent buyers.
• EU (French) wheat FOB (EUR): Likely to hover near €290/MT, maintaining a premium to Black Sea origins and limiting its competitiveness into price‑sensitive destinations relative to Russian and Ukrainian wheat.