Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as New-Crop Selling Starts Slowly

Turkish dried apricot prices are stable and firm, with no meaningful move since mid-July despite the seasonal roll into the 2026/27 export campaign. FOB Malatya offers remain flat across sizes and qualities, while European FCA values show only marginal week‑on‑week adjustments. Tight but orderly farmer selling and still‑solid European demand are preventing any harvest‑time dip. Early new‑crop flow from Malatya is meeting a relatively balanced demand environment. Exporters report steady interest from core EU buyers, while Russia’s recent curbs on Turkish stone-fruit imports are watched but have not yet spilled decisively into the dried segment. Hot, dry weather over the next three days in Malatya and Ankara supports drying quality and keeps supply execution on track. With current prices already elevated versus historic averages, nearby risk is skewed modestly to the upside if EU demand firms further or if any logistics or quality issues emerge.

Prices

Spot indications (converted to EUR) for Turkish origin dried apricots are broadly unchanged versus the previous weeks. Malatya FOB unsulphured grades trade around EUR 7.8–8.6/kg for conventional sizes No. 5–1, while organic equivalents command a stable premium near EUR 9.3–10.3/kg. Sulphured 2000 ppm material is assessed around EUR 7.3–8.7/kg FOB, with a slight size premium structure intact.

In destination Europe, FCA warehouse levels for Turkish origin in the Netherlands show only incremental week‑on‑week adjustments, with most sizes up or down by about EUR 0.05/kg, and Polish FCA stock in Łódź easing modestly on size 8. This confirms a sideways market with no aggressive discounting despite the arrival of new-crop volumes, reflecting confidence in forward demand and limited pressure from competing origins.

Supply & Demand

Malatya remains the dominant global hub for dried apricots, accounting for the bulk of Turkey’s output and a very large share of world trade. The 2026 harvest is now feeding into drying lines under broadly favourable weather, and reports to date do not flag major frost or hail damage. Combined with existing pipeline stocks, this suggests adequate physical availability for the start of the 2026/27 export season.

On the demand side, Europe continues to absorb the majority of Turkish dried apricot exports. Earlier industry commentary for 2026 highlighted strong underlying EU and UK demand for dried fruit, including apricots, with tight stock levels keeping prices elevated through Q1. While Russia recently announced new restrictions on Turkish stone-fruit imports on phytosanitary grounds, these currently focus on fresh trade; dried product flows have so far been less directly affected, leaving the main demand pull centred on EU markets.

Fundamentals

Fundamentally, the market is starting this campaign from a relatively tight base. Previous season exports had already drawn down readily available stocks, and earlier analysis pointed to firm prices supported by limited inventories and solid offtake. With the Turkish lira still structurally weak and domestic production costs elevated, packers are reluctant to discount aggressively at harvest, helping explain the flat price pattern despite new supply.

Global dried fruit trade patterns continue to show high centrality for Turkey in apricots, with Malatya’s output shaping world availability. At the same time, increasing regulatory scrutiny in the EU on pesticide residues and quality in imported fruits and dried products reinforces a preference for reliable, compliant suppliers. This favours larger, export‑oriented Turkish processors and can constrain effective supply from some competing origins, indirectly supporting current Turkish price levels.

Weather & Crop Outlook (TR)

Short‑term weather in Malatya is supportive for drying and logistics. Over 13–15 August, forecasts call for clear to partly sunny skies with daytime highs around 31–34°C and lows near 18–21°C, with no significant rainfall risk. These stable, warm conditions promote efficient sun‑drying and reduce quality losses, limiting any immediate weather‑driven supply concerns.

In Ankara, another key trading and processing hub, the outlook is similarly benign, with sunny and dry conditions and maximum temperatures easing from about 32°C to the high‑20s through the weekend. With no adverse events such as hail or unseasonal rain in the very near term, weather is neutral‑to‑slightly‑supportive for quality but not a bullish driver for prices over the next few days.

Short-Term Trading Outlook

• For buyers: Consider locking in part of Q4–Q1 requirements at current flat levels, especially on key sizes No. 2–4 (both sulphured and unsulphured), as firm EU demand and limited downside catalysts keep the risk of a meaningful price dip low near term.
• For sellers: Maintain price discipline on higher grades and organic product; stable FOB indications and only marginal softening in some FCA stocks suggest there is little need to discount unless faced with urgent liquidity needs.
• Risk watch: Monitor any extension of Russian stone-fruit restrictions into dried categories, and track EU residue‑related policy moves; either could shift trade flows and premiums between origins later in the season.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (EUR)

• Malatya, TR – FOB dried apricots (all main sizes): Sideways to slightly firm (0 to +1%) over the next three days, supported by good drying weather and steady export interest.
• Ankara, TR – FOB dried apricots (sulphured sizes 2–3): Sideways, with limited fresh news and balanced nearby demand.
• EU warehouses (NL, PL – FCA Turkish origin): Mostly sideways with a mild firming bias on popular mid‑sizes if buying programs for late 2026 are advanced this week.