Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as New Crop Weather Stays Favourable

Prices for Turkish dried apricots are broadly steady to slightly softer, with only minor adjustments on selected sizes in European warehouses and FOB Turkey. Stable weather in Malatya and limited fresh market disruptions suggest no imminent supply shock, keeping the market in a sideways pattern for now. European FCA prices for Turkish-origin dried apricots remain clustered in a narrow band, with large sizes in the Netherlands around the mid‑EUR 6s/kg and smaller, value-added cuts in the high‑EUR 3s/kg. A recent marginal easing in Polish FCA levels contrasts with unchanged FOB quotations out of Malatya and Ankara, indicating some inventory pressure in EU hubs rather than at origin. With Malatya’s weather dry and seasonally warm over the coming three days, no immediate yield or quality concerns are emerging, and buyers are negotiating within a relatively balanced market.

Prices

FCA warehouse indications in north‑west Europe for Turkish dried apricots are holding broadly stable, with most standard sulphured sizes trading between roughly EUR 6.00–7.05/kg, depending on calibre and cut. At origin, FOB Malatya and Ankara offers for both sulphured and unsulphured grades are flat compared with late July, sitting in the high‑EUR 7s to low‑EUR 8s/kg range for conventional material and just above EUR 9/kg for organic lines.

Overall, the price structure continues to reflect a premium for larger sizes and organic or unsulphured product, but the absence of fresh bullish catalysts is preventing any sustained move higher. The small discount recently seen on certain Polish FCA offers points to localized competition and stock rotation rather than a structural downturn in fundamentals.

Supply & Demand

Malatya remains the core of global dried apricot supply, accounting for the bulk of Turkey’s output and a dominant share of world trade. Recent academic and export‑association analyses underline that the sector has become increasingly sensitive to supply‑side risks such as spring frosts and climatic variability, which can sharply tighten exportable surplus and push unit prices higher. However, no comparable weather shock has been reported for the 2026 crop so far.

Historically, Turkey has demonstrated strong capacity to maintain export revenues even when volumes drop, mainly through higher unit prices. Current flat FOB offers suggest that processors are not yet facing a scarcity scenario and that raw material inflows from orchards are adequate for normal export programmes. On the demand side, Europe continues to be the key outlet for Turkish dried apricots, with healthy, though not overheated, buying interest reflected in stable warehouse differentials.

Weather & Crop Outlook (Region: Türkiye)

For Malatya, the heart of Turkey’s dried apricot industry, the 3‑day outlook (18–20 August 2026) points to clear, dry and seasonally warm conditions, with daytime highs around 30–33°C and cool nights. Such weather is favourable for drying operations and post‑harvest handling, supporting good colour and moisture control for product still being processed.

With no rain, frost or extreme heat waves in the immediate forecast window, short‑term risks to the dried apricot pipeline from weather are minimal. The combination of benign conditions and normal logistics in eastern and central Türkiye implies that any near‑term price volatility will likely stem from demand or currency swings rather than from fresh crop damage.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

International statistics confirm Turkey’s role as the leading dried apricot producer and exporter, supplying a very high share of global trade volumes, with Malatya alone responsible for the majority of national output. Earlier seasonal data pointed to strong exports into Europe, North America and Asia‑Pacific, driven by diversified end‑use demand from retail snacking to industrial bakery applications.

Regulatory or tariff changes specific to dried apricots have not been reported in the last few days, and existing EU fruit and vegetable import mechanisms mainly target fresh categories under separate tariff lines. As a result, the current trade environment for dried apricots into the EU appears stable, and freight or logistics bottlenecks are not featuring as a major price driver this week.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers with nearby needs may consider incremental coverage at current FCA levels, as stable FOB offers and good weather argue against a sharp near‑term price drop.
• Origin sellers should monitor EU warehouse competition, particularly in Poland, where slightly lower FCA numbers signal that buyers are price‑sensitive and focused on rotations.
• For longer‑term positions, participants should keep an eye on any late‑season weather anomalies or orchard reports from Malatya that could alter perceptions of 2026/27 supply tightness.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)