Turkish dried figs hold firm as heatwave builds into pre‑harvest lull

Spot EUR‑equivalent FOB prices for Turkish dried figs are broadly steady, with only selective grade adjustments, as the market waits for clearer signals on the upcoming Aegean crop. High temperatures and dry weather in Malatya and İzmir are supportive for fruit development but have not yet translated into fresh price momentum. Trading is currently dominated by nearby shorts and small top‑ups from European buyers, while major importers stay largely on the sidelines ahead of new‑crop price ideas. Turkish dried fruit exports exceeded USD 750 million in the first half of 2026, underlining robust structural demand, but dried figs now trade in a narrow range and liquidity is thin. Weather in the Aegean remains hot and mostly dry over the next three days, favouring ripening and drying conditions rather than generating new weather‑premium buying.

Prices

FOB Malatya offers for conventional Turkish dried figs are flat versus mid‑July for natural grades and slightly mixed for Lerida types. No. 1–3 natural figs are indicated around EUR 9.6–9.2/kg, while mid‑range naturals (No. 4–6) hover near EUR 8.8–7.8/kg, showing a stable curve between sizes. Lerida quality ranges roughly from EUR 9.0/kg for No. 1 to about EUR 6.4/kg for No. 7, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves, reflecting minor grade re‑balancing rather than a directional trend.

Organic formats ex‑İzmir, such as Protoben and Mini dried figs, price near the mid‑teens EUR/kg FOB and remain at a firm premium to conventional, but they have also been static in recent weeks. Despite strong dried fruit exports (USD 752 million in H1 2026, with dried figs a key pillar), buyers are not chasing volume at current levels, keeping the price structure largely unchanged.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant origin in the world dried fig balance sheet, with 2025/26 production estimated around 70,000 tonnes and total supply at roughly 75,000 tonnes, leaving comfortable carry‑out stocks if demand stays in line with recent years. Export statistics point to robust overall dried fruit flows, and industry leaders expect the sector to reach around USD 2 billion in exports this year across raisins, figs and apricots, confirming Turkey’s status as a core supplier for Europe and the Middle East.

Recent industry commentary notes that export‑quality dried fig stocks from the old crop are largely depleted, with exporters working mainly on residual contracts and spot parcels. This tightness on remaining exportable stock helps explain why prices are not weakening despite modest short‑term demand. However, buyers also know that a larger new crop is approaching, which caps aggressive upside moves for now.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Current weather in key fig regions is hot and predominantly dry, which is broadly favourable at this stage of fruit development and pre‑harvest drying. In Malatya, daily highs over 22–24 July are forecast around 36°C with clear skies, while İzmir is even hotter, peaking near 39°C before easing slightly towards the weekend. Such conditions support sugar accumulation and reduce disease pressure, provided that excessive heat stress is avoided.

National climate monitoring confirms that June 2026 was among the warmer Junes of recent decades, with temperatures in much of the Aegean region running above long‑term averages. Combined with earlier reports of good flowering and pollination, this backdrop aligns with expectations of a strong 2026 Turkish dried fig crop and helps explain the current wait‑and‑see attitude in the market. No major weather‑related damage has been reported in the last few days.

Market Drivers

• Old‑crop tightness vs. new‑crop optimism: Export‑quality old‑crop figs are scarce, but expectations for a large 2026 harvest reduce urgency for buyers to bid prices higher immediately.
• Solid export backdrop: Dried fruit exports above USD 750 million in H1 2026 signal healthy underlying demand, with dried figs second only to raisins in value within Turkey’s dried fruit portfolio.
• Macro and FX context: Turkey’s export‑market climate index for manufacturing remains just above the 50 threshold, indicating slightly expansionary external demand conditions, although not booming.
• Weather risk still low: The next three days’ hot and dry outlook brings little immediate threat; the key risk window will be any unseasonal rainfall or humidity spikes closer to the main harvest period.

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• For importers: With Malatya FOB prices stable and old‑crop export stocks thin, covering only prompt to early‑Q4 needs appears prudent. Larger positions can likely wait for clearer new‑crop guidance unless you have strict quality specs in organic or specific grades.
• For exporters in TR: Maintain current offer levels on conventional grades; the combination of limited old‑crop stock and favourable export sentiment argues against discounting. Consider selective premiums on high‑quality large sizes and organics.
• For industrial users: The flat forward curve offers an opportunity to lock in a portion of 2026/27 requirements, especially for value‑added organic formats that show less liquidity and more potential for later tightness.

3‑day Price Direction (EUR, FOB)

• Malatya, TR – conventional dried figs: Sideways to slightly firm; weather‑supportive but no clear trigger for a breakout.
• İzmir, TR – organic figs and specialties: Steady with a mild upward bias on limited spot availability.
• Madrid, ES – Spanish dried figs (benchmark vs TR): Stable; Turkish offers remain competitively priced, limiting any independent Spanish upside in the very short term.