Turkish Dried Figs Hold Steady as Heatwave Builds Weather Risk

Turkish dried fig prices are stable in late July with a firm tone across key Malatya and İzmir FOB ranges, while a strong 2025/26 crop outlook and hot, dry weather keep attention on quality and sizing rather than immediate price spikes. Buyers face a balanced market: ample supply prospects and active export flow, but mounting heat stress in western Turkey that could rapidly tighten high‑quality offers if damage emerges. Overall trading conditions are calm but watchful. Strong sunshine and very high daytime temperatures across Malatya and the Aegean fig belt are ideal for drying but push orchards close to stress thresholds. At the same time, dried fruit exports from Türkiye remain robust, underlining solid underlying demand, especially from Europe. This combination supports a sideways short‑term price view with a mild upward bias in premium grades if any weather‑related quality loss materialises over the coming weeks.

Prices

All price indications below are converted from USD FOB to EUR FOB using an approximate rate of 1 EUR = 1.10 USD.

Conventional Turkish dried figs from Malatya show a flat curve across all natural and Lerida sizes over the last three weeks, pointing to a market in balance ahead of the main new‑crop marketing season. Organic fig products ex‑İzmir hold a clear premium of roughly 60–90% to standard Malatya ranges, with only marginal week‑on‑week adjustments within the spread.

Supply & Demand

Türkiye remains the dominant global dried fig supplier, with recent international data projecting 2025/26 national production around 70,000 tonnes and total supply of about 75,000 tonnes, up from the previous season. This reinforces expectations of comfortable availability into the new marketing year, especially for standard grades.

Export statistics for Türkiye’s dried fruit complex show strong performance in the 2025/26 season, with dried products (including figs) an important contributor to foreign currency inflows. Trade contacts report consistent demand from core European destinations, helped by stable EUR‑denominated prices and competitive Turkish offers relative to Spanish and Greek origins. The result is steady off‑take without the need for significant discounting.

On the demand side, European buyers are proceeding with regular cover rather than aggressive forward booking, reflecting comfort on supply and some caution over consumer demand in high‑inflation markets. This behaviour, combined with good crop expectations, explains the current narrow price ranges and limited volatility on FOB Turkish figs.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

In Malatya, a key drying and trading hub, the forecast from 30 July to 1 August calls for very warm to hot, sunny weather, with daytime highs rising from about 35°C to 38°C and no rain expected. Such conditions are broadly favourable for drying and storage, supporting product quality provided irrigation and warehouse management are adequate.

In İzmir and the wider Aegean coastal belt, including core Sarılop fig areas in Aydın and surrounding districts, temperatures are similarly high. Forecasts show maximums around 36–37°C, locally near 37–38°C, under continuous sunshine and dry skies over the next three days. Agronomic research for the region highlights that figs tolerate heat relatively well but prolonged extremes can accelerate ripening and increase splitting and sunburn risk, especially on exposed trees.

Recent European crop monitoring also flags heatwaves across southern Europe as a growing concern for summer crops. While there are currently no confirmed large‑scale damage reports in Turkish fig orchards, the ongoing heatwave keeps a modest upside risk premium for high‑quality large sizes if quality downgrades surface later in the season.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Strong supply base: Latest international projections for 2025/26 show Turkish dried fig production and ending stocks both higher year‑on‑year, signalling comfortable supply for exporters and importers.
• Robust export performance: Dried fruits, including figs, continue to contribute significantly to Türkiye’s export earnings, with associations reporting solid volumes and diversified destination markets.
• Weather‑related quality risk: Persistent heat in Aydın–İzmir and inland areas may not cut volumes materially but could skew size distributions and quality, potentially tightening availability of top‑grade large fruit later.
• Competitive landscape: Spain and other Mediterranean origins remain smaller players relative to Türkiye, but their stable price levels help anchor the broader European dried fig market and limit Turkish upside in the absence of a clear supply shock.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers / industrial users: Consider covering near‑term needs at current EUR levels, especially for larger natural and Lerida sizes, as the risk/reward for waiting favors modest upside if heat‑related quality issues emerge.
• Packers / traders in Türkiye: Maintain offer discipline on premium sizes and organic lines, but remain flexible on smaller grades to keep export flows steady amid strong competition in Europe.
• Retail‑oriented buyers: Use the current stable period to secure branded and organic supply programs through Q4, balancing some fixed‑price cover with optionality in case of later demand softness.

3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR, FOB)