Turkish Hazelnut Exporters are about to Close the Season

Turkish hazelnut exporters are about to close the season and in principle, the situation of the last few weeks has hardly changed. There is still hardly any buying interest on the part of buyers. This is due to existing contracts, good stocks and the great uncertainty regarding the future market development in Europe. In addition, the risk of a large price jump is considered rather low, so clients see no need for action at the moment. Concerning the sellers’ side, on the other hand, we see increasing activity again. Some producers want to close the season and clear out their warehouses, so some lots probably changed hands. The increased activity (in relation to the holidays) caused a slight rise in commodity prices, as a few are now increasing their stocks after all. However, as the Turkish lira weakened again somewhat in the course of the week, export prices remained stable on average, although there were again a few outliers on the downside. Overall, we see that the prices for natural kernels hardly changed, but preparations tended to fall again somewhat. However, this is a normal development for the season’s final weeks. With regard to offers for the coming harvest, we now see a rather cautious picture of the sellers. The “cheap” offers that were still on the market a few weeks ago have been withdrawn, as they want to wait for the events of the coming weeks. However, the difference of about 0.50 EUR/kg between the individual offers of the sellers is still interesting. A broad positioning of the suppliers is therefore still advantageous.

This week, the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture also published its harvest estimate of approx. 740,000 mt. This corresponds roughly to the average of the forecasts currently circulating in the market of 720,000 – 765,000 mt. This means that the Ministry now also has the data to set the purchase price of the TMO. We expect a corresponding statement next week. Incidentally, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Turkish Central Bank will meet next Thursday to discuss interest rate policy and present the new report on inflation in the country. The coming week could thus be a week of setting the course for the new season. However, it is questionable whether this will trigger buying impulses.

Some exporters will close their factories in the coming weeks for the usual overhauls and annual cleanings. Also, many workers are currently on holiday to be ready for the start of the season. All in all, a normal course for this time of year.

bullet points

• Export demand remains very weak, as do domestic sales.
• Commodity prices are picking up again as some exporters are building up their stocks after all.
• Other exporters and crackers clear their stocks due to the good upcoming harvest.
• The Turkish Ministry of Agriculture publishes a harvest forecast of approx. 750,000 mt.
• The Turkish lira is trending slightly weaker, compensating for the increase in commodity prices for exports.
• The market expects the TMO price to be announced in the next 1-2 weeks.

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