📈 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Frost Damage Confirmed, Prices Break New Records 📈
📍 After field inspections, it is now evident that the Turkish hazelnut crop has suffered significant frost damage, confirming fears of a 30% yield loss. Sellers are holding back, farmers expect even higher prices, and exporters are cautiously returning to the market. For the first time ever, raw material prices have crossed 200 TRY/kg.
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Hazelnut kernels
roasted, diced, 2-4mm
FOB 8.70 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
roasted, meal
FOB 7.20 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural 11-13mm
FOB 9.21 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural, 13-15mm
FOB 9.90 €/kg
(from TR)
📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
Week 17 Market Prices (DDP Central Europe):
| Product | Price (€) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Hazelnut Kernels 11–13 mm (raw) | €10.52 | +0.00% |
| Hazelnut Kernels 11–13 mm (organic) | €9.54 | +0.00% |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €12.97 | — |
| Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm | €8.52 | -0.06 € |
| Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm | €7.19 | -0.29 € |
| Hazelnut Paste | €7.31 | -0.05 € |
📈 TRY Performance (vs. EUR): Turkish Lira stable after a 3.5% interest rate hike to 46%.
📍 Market Development vs. Previous Periods:
- Quarterly Price Increase: +14.40%
- Half-Year Increase: +20.12%
- Annual Increase: +18.90%
- 3-Year Gain: +41.27%
🌍 Market Drivers & Trends
🔥 30% Crop Loss Confirmed
- After garden inspections, a 30% loss across Turkey is now widely accepted.
- Damage is worst in Samsun and Ordu above 300 meters altitude.
🧊 Local Market Frozen
- Farmers are holding back stocks, expecting further price rises.
- Local trade activity is minimal.
- No new offers for the 2025 harvest are available.
📦 Export Market Cautiously Reopening
- Exporters are testing the market, quoting with wide price ranges.
- Buyers are observing, no aggressive buying yet.
💶 Currency Situation
- Turkish Lira stable despite political tension and inflation pressure.
- Export pricing reflects raw material price increases, not currency moves.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Product | Forecast Range (€/kg) |
|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm | €10.50 – €10.80 |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €12.90 – €13.20 |
| Hazelnut Paste | €7.20 – €7.50 |
📌 Upside Risk: Strong – very tight supply.
📌 Downside Risk: Minimal unless buyers fully retreat.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend
🇹🇷 Turkey – Black Sea Region
📍 Current Situation: 🌤️ Mild spring weather, no new frost events reported.
📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):
- 🌡️ Temperatures rising: 14–19°C
- 🌧️ Rain showers expected May 2–5
- 🌱 Favourable for flowering,g but stress remains from prior frost.
📉 Long-Term Outlook – Stocks & Production
| Season | Global Ending Stocks (MT) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 486,000 | — |
| 2022/23 | 450,000 | -36,000 |
| 2023/24 | 440,000 | -10,000 |
| 2024/25 (e) | 420,000 | -20,000 |
| Country | 2024/25 Production Forecast (in-shell, MT) |
|---|---|
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 675,000 – 720,000 (before frost, now likely lower) |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 53,000 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 115,000 |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | 65,000 |
🧠 Key Takeaways & Market Strategy
🔍 Key Highlights:
- 30% crop loss confirmed, highest since 2014.
- Prices have broken the 200 TRY/kg barrier.
- Exporters are cautious but starting to quote again.
- Tight supply ahead, expect strong price support.
🛒 Recommendations for Buyers:
- Secure remaining stocks early.
- Actively monitor May frost reports and new TMO announcements.
📤 Recommendations for Sellers:
- Hold for potential further price increases.
- Manage offers carefully, as buyer resistance will grow with every additional hike.
