Turkish Hazelnut Market – Sellers Shift Tactics as Prices Temporarily Soften
📍 Amid muted demand and surplus offers, Turkish hazelnut prices weakened this week across most product grades. Exporters who previously held firm have started to sell off consignment stock before month-end, aiming to influence prices downward. Buyers remain cautious, and most view 2025 crop offers as overpriced, holding back until further clarity emerges in mid-June.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Hazelnut kernels
roasted, diced, 2-4mm
FOB 8.35 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
roasted, meal
FOB 7.00 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural 11-13mm
FOB 8.76 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural, 13-15mm
FOB 9.43 €/kg
(from TR)
📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
| Product | Price (€/kg, DDP Europe) | Weekly Change | Quarterly | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (organic) | €9.78 | -0.55 € | +17.09% | +24.17% |
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (conventional) | €11.02 | -0.01 € | +17.09% | +24.17% |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €12.36 | -1.01 € | — | — |
| Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm | €8.41 | -0.40 € | — | — |
| Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm | €7.75 | -0.24 € | — | — |
| Hazelnut Paste (medium) | €7.47 | -0.15 € | — | — |
📉 Overall weekly price drop: -4.15%, largest single-week decline since February.
💱 TRY/EUR remains stable – no FX-driven price movement.
🌍 Market Drivers & Trends
📦 Sellers Shift from Holding to Liquidation
- Exporters switch roles from buyers to sellers to pressure prices downward.
- May 31 marks the deadline for commission stock liquidation, pushing some to accept discounts.
💰 Farmer Speculation Declines
- Pre-holiday liquidity needs (due to Kurban Bayramı) prompt some farmers to sell at lower prices.
- TMO has not yet intervened, despite expectations for a bullish auction.
🔍 Quality & Traceability Gaps Widen
- Heterogeneity in offers: Some exporters transparently label 2022 TMO stock; others blend or mislabel.
- Pricing of roasted and natural whole kernels is increasingly distorted due to quality gaps.
🛑 Buyer Behaviour
- Buyers’ focus shifts to 2025 crop, but price expectations remain misaligned.
- Many European buyers say, “If it’s expensive now, it’ll still be expensive later.”
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Product | Forecast Range (€/kg) |
|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm | €10.80 – €11.10 |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €12.10 – €12.50 |
| Hazelnut Paste | €7.40 – €7.60 |
📌 Upside Risk: Low until the post-Eid market reopens mid-June.
📌 Downside Risk: Minimal after consignment stock clears.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend – Turkey (Black Sea Region)
📍 Current Situation:
🌡️ Temperatures are stable at 19–24°C.
🌧️ Showers expected June 4–7.
🐛 Continued monitoring for stinkbug impact, now entering critical nut-set phase.
📉 Long-Term Production & Export Insights
- Exporters expect continued divergence between grades (premium vs. bulk).
- 2022 TMO stock still distorting the market for small kernel categories and paste.
- Global consumption forecast flat, especially in the confectionery industry.
🧠 Key Takeaways & Strategy
🔍 Key Themes:
- Price correction this week is not market-driven, but deadline-driven (end-May stock pressures).
- High-quality offers remain strong, with minor corrections, while low-grade quotes dropped most.
- June is expected to reset market expectations, especially as orchard health updates and revised forecasts emerge.
📌 Buyers:
- Wait for post-Eid offers, better quality assessments expected.
- Avoid low-quality stock dumping, especially in broken and paste categories.
📌 Sellers:
- Stabilise quality offers and prepare for mid-June reentry.
- Use the next 2 weeks to recalibrate export strategies and buyer dialogues.
