Ukraine peas: strong harvest meets worsening export bottlenecks

Ukraine’s pea market enters the 2026/27 season with a strong crop and solid demand, but export potential of 450–550 Kt is capped by acute logistics constraints and softer local prices. Ukraine has harvested around 712 Kt of peas from 93% of forecasted area as of 10 August and could reach about 740 Kt, well above average. Exporters come from a strong 2025/26 season, when shipments rose to 387 Kt, driven mainly by late-season demand from Italy, Turkey and Malaysia. However, implementation of the current season’s export potential is threatened by renewed disruptions to Black Sea logistics, forcing more flows onto costly and capacity‑limited alternative routes, while FCA prices in Odesa are easing month-on-month.

Prices

Ukrainian pea prices are under pressure despite the strong export narrative. FCA Odesa quotes for new-crop peas have softened over the past three weeks: yellow peas (98% purity) slipped from about EUR 0.21/kg in late July to EUR 0.18/kg by 13 August, while green peas fell from around EUR 0.30/kg to EUR 0.23/kg over the same period. In contrast, UK FOB levels are stable, with dried green peas around EUR 0.96/kg and marrowfat near EUR 1.25/kg in London, widening the discount for Ukrainian origins.

This widening basis reflects a growing logistics risk premium rather than a collapse in underlying demand. Buyers in Italy, Turkey and Malaysia who already supported record‑high exports in the second half of 2025/26 remain structurally important, but are factoring in uncertainty around Black Sea loadings and higher overland costs. As a result, origin prices in Ukraine must adjust downward to stay competitive versus Russian and other Black Sea pulse suppliers.

Supply & Demand

The fundamental backdrop for Ukrainian peas is broadly constructive on supply. With 712 Kt already harvested from 93% of planned area and a likely final crop near 740 Kt, production in 2026 is significantly above the five‑year average. Against domestic use needs, this implies an exportable surplus in the range of 450–550 Kt, up from last season’s 387 Kt. The previous marketing year already proved that international demand can absorb higher volumes, especially when competitive prices are offered.

On the demand side, the key outlets remain Mediterranean and Asian markets. Italy and Turkey increased purchases in the latter half of 2025/26, while Malaysia also emerged as a notable buyer, underpinning the atypical back‑loaded export pattern. This suggests that feed and food users in these regions are ready to step in when Ukrainian peas are attractively priced. However, realization of this potential is conditional on reliable logistics; without sufficient seaborne capacity, part of the theoretical surplus risks remaining trapped inland or being sold at heavy discounts.

Logistics & External Factors

Logistics are the main bearish driver for farmgate prices and the key risk for export realization. Recent intensification of attacks and security incidents in the Black Sea has led to temporary suspensions of merchant ship arrivals at major Ukrainian ports and a sharp drop in early‑August grain exports versus typical volumes. While alternative routes via Danube ports and EU rail corridors continue to operate, they can only cover a fraction of the capacity previously provided by Odesa‑area deep‑sea ports.

For peas, which are relatively high‑value compared with bulk grains but still sensitive to freight and handling costs, this shift raises the delivered‑to‑buyer cost base. Traders must either pay higher logistics charges or push origin prices down to maintain competitiveness. At the same time, broader Black Sea grain uncertainty supports some underlying demand for Ukrainian pulses as buyers seek to diversify suppliers, but this is not yet sufficient to offset the negative impact of constrained export channels on producer returns.

Weather & Crop Outlook

With 93% of the pea area already harvested, short‑term weather has limited impact on 2026 production volumes. Current yield outcomes underpin the expectation of around 740 Kt total output, confirming that agronomic conditions through the growing season were generally favourable. Residual harvest progress in remaining fields will depend on localized weather in the coming days, but any delays are unlikely to materially change national totals.

More relevant now is weather‑related disruption to logistics infrastructure, particularly in river and port operations, though current reports point to security rather than weather as the dominant constraint. Looking ahead, attention will shift from yield risk to storage conditions and quality preservation for peas awaiting export, especially if port bottlenecks extend and on‑farm or inland storage facilities remain tight due to overlapping grain and oilseed campaigns.

Trading Outlook

• Exporters: Consider forward‑selling limited volumes toward Italy, Turkey and Malaysia at current discounts while securing flexible logistics options (Danube plus rail) rather than over‑committing to Black Sea loadings. Prioritise quality segregation to capture any premiums for higher‑spec lots.
• Producers: With FCA Odesa prices already 10–25% below late‑July levels, avoid forced sales where storage allows and monitor logistics developments; a partial normalization of export flows could narrow discounts later in the season.
• Importers: European and Mediterranean buyers may use current Ukrainian price weakness to extend coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027, but should factor in potential shipment delays and diversify between Ukrainian and alternative origins.

Short-Term Price & Basis View (3 days)

Given strong Ukrainian supply and unresolved Black Sea constraints, local pea prices are likely to stay under pressure in the very short term, with any rebound dependent on clear signs of improved export routings or a stronger pull from key Mediterranean and Asian buyers.