Ukrainian Peas Under Harvest Pressure but Still Above Winter Lows

Peas prices in Ukrainian ports have come under clear harvest pressure since late June, but current bids remain noticeably above this winter’s lows, reflecting a large crop, good quality and still‑restrained export demand. With the active 2026 harvest now in full swing, the peas market in Ukraine has shifted into a classic harvest‑pressure phase. Rising availability of new‑crop peas, accelerated harvesting and generally high quality are weighing on port bids. At the same time, prices are still well above February’s trough, as the market continues to digest last season’s unusually large carryover and structurally weak exports. Stable to slightly lower domestic FCA indications and hot, mostly dry weather in Odesa region suggest that near‑term downside is limited but further softness is possible if logistics disruptions persist.

Prices

Since the start of the harvest in the third decade of June, purchase prices for peas in Ukrainian ports have decreased. As of 13 July, maximum demand prices reach 13,600 UAH/t on CPT‑port terms and 13,500 UAH/t on DAP terms, implying declines of about 400 UAH/t and 300 UAH/t, respectively, compared with pre‑harvest levels. This adjustment reflects a rapid inflow of new‑crop volumes and more aggressive selling by farmers.

Converted at roughly 43 UAH/EUR, current top port bids correspond to about 316–320 EUR/t, still well above winter lows. In February, peas prices in ports ranged between 11,500 and 12,300 UAH/t (around 267–286 EUR/t), underscoring that even after the recent drop the market is trading materially higher than earlier in the 2025/26 season. Domestic FCA Odesa offers for Ukrainian peas currently stand near 0.22 EUR/kg for yellow and 0.30 EUR/kg for green peas, broadly stable to slightly lower versus late June.

Supply & Demand

The current price correction is driven first of all by supply. The 2025/26 season was paradoxical for Ukrainian peas: farmers harvested one of the largest crops in years, yet exports remained among the lowest. By mid‑season, only about 200 thousand tonnes had left the country, whereas in a typical year 60–70% of the harvest would already have been sold abroad. This left a significant carryover cushion entering the new campaign.

In 2026, peas area is estimated slightly higher year‑on‑year and early yield reports are strong, confirming ample new‑crop availability. Hot, mostly dry conditions in Odesa and other southern regions over early–mid July have allowed harvesting to advance quickly and support the reported high quality of this year’s peas, with limited weather‑related losses so far. At the same time, the global pulses balance remains comfortable, keeping external demand for Ukrainian peas measured rather than aggressive.

Fundamentals & External Factors

Fundamentally, the market is still digesting last season’s mismatch between record output and weak exports. The large residual stock exerts structural pressure on domestic prices even as current port bids remain above winter levels. Exporters are cautious about overpaying at the start of the campaign given uncertainties about downstream demand and logistics costs.

On the logistics side, recent missile and drone attacks on Black Sea infrastructure, including at Chornomorsk, have underlined ongoing risks for Ukrainian grain and pulses exports. While peas volumes are smaller than cereals, any disruption to port capacity can widen export‑importer price spreads and cap bids at origin. So far, however, the impact on peas pricing appears contained, with traders focusing more on immediate harvest‑related supply than on potential medium‑term bottlenecks.

Weather Outlook (Ukraine, key peas regions)

For the coming days, forecasts for Odesa and surrounding southern regions point to warm, predominantly dry weather with daytime temperatures in the mid‑20s to around 30°C and only isolated showers. This pattern is supportive for continued rapid harvest progress and grain drying in the field, limiting quality risks but reinforcing short‑term supply pressure on local markets.

In central regions, conditions are similarly favourable, with no widespread heavy rainfall expected in the next few days. As a result, the physical flow of peas to elevators and ports is likely to remain strong, prolonging the current buyer’s market at least through the immediate harvest window.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price bias (next 1–2 weeks): Slightly bearish to sideways. Continued strong harvest pressure and large carryover argue against a quick rebound, although current levels already sit above winter lows.
• For farmers: Consider selling a portion of volumes at current port bids to secure margins, while retaining some stock in expectation of a possible technical recovery once the main harvest wave passes and logistics risks become clearer.
• For exporters/traders: Harvest‑time offers present opportunities to build export positions at competitive FCA levels, especially for high‑quality lots. However, maintain a risk buffer for potential port disruptions and freight volatility.
• For buyers (feed and food industry): The current window is favourable for forward coverage of near‑term needs, particularly for yellow peas, where FCA prices have softened. Spreading purchases over the coming weeks can average out further modest downside.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Ukraine ports (CPT peas): Stable to slightly lower; indicative range 310–320 EUR/t over the next three days, with downside limited by already compressed farmer selling interest at lower levels.
• Odesa FCA yellow peas: Mildly bearish; expected to trade around 215–225 EUR/t as harvest pressure persists and buyers test lower bids.
• Odesa FCA green peas: Mostly stable; high quality and more specific demand should keep prices near 295–305 EUR/t, with only marginal downside risk in the very short term.