Ukrainian Rapeseed Prices Steady as Old-Crop Supply Weighs on Market

Ukrainian rapeseed prices for the old crop are currently capped by ample supply and unsold stocks, keeping port values broadly stable. Buyers see little urgency, while sellers face increasing pressure to clear remaining volumes before the new crop approaches.

After a firm run earlier in March, the domestic rapeseed market in Ukraine has moved into a sideways phase. Additional volumes reaching the market and the presence of unsold batches are limiting any further price gains and gradually shifting bargaining power towards buyers. At the same time, steady export demand and relatively calm logistics from Odesa are helping to prevent a deeper correction. Overall, the market is balanced but fragile, with downside risks if selling pressure intensifies or export demand slows.

📈 Prices

Old-crop rapeseed prices in Ukraine have stabilized as supply increased. As of 20 March, export prices at the central port of Odesa are indicated around 550–570 USD/t. Converting with an indicative rate of 1 EUR = 1.10 USD, this corresponds to approximately 500–518 EUR/t on a port basis.

Domestic FCA indications for 42% oil, 98% purity rapeseed in Ukraine show a broadly steady tone in recent weeks. Kyiv and Odesa FCA prices on 20 March are around 0.60–0.61 EUR/kg (600–610 EUR/t), confirming that the market has moved from an earlier uptrend into a consolidation phase.

Location	Term	Date	Price (EUR/t)
Odesa (central port)	FOB/port	20 Mar 2026	≈500–518
Kyiv	FCA	20 Mar 2026	≈600
Odesa	FCA	20 Mar 2026	≈610

🌍 Supply & Demand

Additional rapeseed volumes have recently come to market in Ukraine, easing earlier tightness and stabilizing old-crop prices. Importantly, some Ukrainian rapeseed batches remain unsold, creating visible overhang. This unsold stock is exerting direct pressure on sellers, who face a narrowing window before attention shifts to the new crop.

On the demand side, export interest via Black Sea ports and domestic crush needs remain present but not aggressive. Buyers are able to pick and choose among offers, and the supply overhang reduces their need to chase volumes. As a result, the current equilibrium reflects a market where demand is adequate but not strong enough to absorb all remaining stocks without discounting.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is transitioning from a tighter phase into one characterized by comfortable old-crop availability. The key factor is the persistence of unsold rapeseed in farmer and trader hands, which prevents any significant price rebound despite stable external demand. Until these volumes are cleared, the market is likely to trade within a relatively narrow range.

In the Odesa region, the three-day weather outlook (23–25 March) points to generally mild and dry conditions with daytime highs around 11–13°C and partly sunny skies. Such weather is neutral to slightly positive for logistics and fieldwork planning, supporting smooth port operations and preparation for the upcoming season, without providing any immediate bullish weather impulse.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Sellers (farmers, aggregators): Consider gradual sales of remaining old-crop rapeseed while prices stay near 500–518 EUR/t at Odesa port; holding large unsold volumes carries the risk of discounts if market pressure increases.
• Buyers (crushers, exporters): The current supply overhang allows for selective purchasing and negotiation on basis levels; staggered buying strategies could capture potential minor dips without jeopardizing coverage.
• Risk focus: Monitor changes in export demand and logistics costs from Odesa, as well as any fast-paced selling waves that could temporarily push prices below current stable levels.

📉 3-Day Price Indication (Ukraine)

• Odesa port, old crop: Sideways to slightly softer bias, around 500–515 EUR/t equivalent, as selling pressure persists.
• FCA Odesa: Expected to remain near 605–615 EUR/t, with limited room for upside unless export buying intensifies.
• FCA Kyiv: Indications likely to hold close to 595–605 EUR/t; modest discounts are possible if more unsold stocks emerge in the interior.