Ukrainian Wheat Softens, German Feed Wheat Holds as Black Sea Risks Persist

Ukrainian wheat prices in Odesa have eased slightly over the past week, while German feed wheat in Lower Saxony is holding steady, as Black Sea security risks and constrained Ukrainian export flows keep a firm floor under EU values. Wheat markets in Europe are currently balancing modest harvest pressure with persistent logistical and geopolitical constraints. In Germany, national average feed wheat prices have been trending higher since late July, reflecting tighter local fundamentals, while our latest Drentwede EXW quotation remains stable. In Ukraine, export volumes at the start of the 2026/27 season are running about 20% below last year, and rail routes via western borders have taken over much of the flow from Odesa’s ports after repeated attacks. Ukraine also sees no prospect of a Black Sea ceasefire in the coming months, which caps downside for Black Sea-origin wheat.

Prices

Odesa CPT quotations show a slight firming in grade 2 compared with late September, while grade 3 and feed wheat are flat at their last recorded levels. German EXW feed wheat in Drentwede is unchanged versus the previous quote, but sits in the upper part of the national feed wheat range, which most recently reached around 214 EUR/t on average. Internationally, export-grade wheat FOB Germany has been trading in the mid‑$270s per tonne in recent days, indicating that EU milling wheat remains competitively but not cheaply priced.

Supply & Demand

Ukraine’s grain exports at the start of the 2026/27 marketing year are materially behind last season. By 21 September, total grain and pulses exports reached 4.662 million tonnes, about 20% below the same period in 2025/26, with wheat shipments down from 4.168 to 2.337 million tonnes. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy reported that exports in the first 20 days of September reached only 44% of volumes implied by current production, underlining the strength of the logistical bottleneck rather than any surplus of supply. The shift from sea to land routes is dramatic. Recent shipping statistics show that roughly 83% of grain exports by rail are now moving through Ukraine’s western border crossings, while volumes through the ports of Greater Odesa have collapsed by more than half month‑on‑month. This diversion raises transport costs, delays delivery and effectively widens the basis between inland and seaborne prices, all of which tend to support CPT and FCA quotations in Odesa and Kyiv. In Germany, official advisory prices from the Lower Saxony Chamber of Agriculture for September show indicative wheat values in the range of 18.50–21.55 EUR/100 kg for feed and milling types, signalling firmer replacement costs for livestock producers versus August. Nationally, feed wheat has been on an upward trend since early summer, and remains well above long‑term averages despite the pullback from 2022 highs. This underpins steady EXW bids in northern Germany even as physical harvest pressure fades.

Weather & Risk Context (DE, UA)

For Odesa and wider southern Ukraine, current 7‑day forecasts point to mostly dry to slightly showery conditions with seasonally mild temperatures, supporting unhindered fieldwork and logistics but doing little to replenish soil moisture ahead of winter wheat sowing. (Forecast checked for the Odesa oblast region.) In northern Germany (Lower Saxony region around Drentwede), the outlook over the next week indicates cool, unsettled weather with periodic rain showers and moderate winds. This is largely neutral for already harvested wheat, but some wet days could temporarily slow on‑farm movements or loading activities where storage is tight. Overall, short‑term weather is not a primary driver for prices in DE or UA at the moment; logistics and politics remain far more important. Geopolitical risk stays elevated. On 29 September, Ukrainian officials reiterated that they expect no ceasefire in the Black Sea export theatre in the coming months, as Russia continues to reject proposals to secure shipping, implying ongoing disruption and insurance premia for Black Sea routes.

Market Fundamentals & Outlook

• Ukraine (UA): Constrained export capacity, weaker shipments and the forced rerouting of grain via rail and western borders are tightening the effective exportable surplus, keeping CPT Odesa wheat floors relatively firm despite seasonal supply.
• Germany (DE): Stable EXW feed wheat prices in Drentwede align with firm national averages and stronger advisory benchmarks, suggesting that domestic consumers are willing to pay up for nearby cover rather than rely on uncertain Black Sea flows.
• Global linkages: International wheat futures and FOB quotes have recently stabilised after earlier volatility, with South African SAFEX and US Kansas City red wheat values consolidating, which removes some external downward pressure on European physical prices.

Trading Recommendations

• Feed buyers in Germany (DE): Consider extending coverage modestly into Q4 at current EXW levels in Lower Saxony, as upside risk from sustained Black Sea disruptions and firm national averages outweighs limited short‑term downside.
• Ukrainian sellers (UA): With export logistics constrained and rail congestion high, prioritise sales where CPT or FCA bids reflect the logistical premium; avoid over‑committing volume to uncertain Black Sea shipments.
• Importers in EU & MENA: Maintain diversified origin strategies, combining German/EU wheat with alternative non‑Black Sea suppliers, as Ukraine itself signals that normalisation of Black Sea exports is unlikely in the near term.

3‑Day Directional Price Outlook (DE, UA)

• Germany – Drentwede EXW feed wheat: Sideways to slightly firm. Domestic fundamentals and national averages argue against meaningful weakening through the next three sessions.
• Ukraine – Odesa CPT wheat (grades 2 & 3, feed): Mild downside limited, biasing sideways. Export constraints and intact demand for competitive Black Sea origin should keep prices within a narrow range despite lingering harvest pressure.