US Corn Exports Surge as EU Prices Edge Higher

US corn exports are finishing the 2025/26 marketing year with strong momentum, keeping global buyers engaged and offering a firm underpinning to international prices. This strength contrasts with weaker US soybean exports and is helping corn retain a relative advantage in feed rations. Corn export inspections from the United States remain well above last year’s levels, confirming robust physical demand into the final weeks of the 2025/26 season. At the same time, European cash prices in key origins such as Germany and France are holding a modest upward trend, while Black Sea offers stay competitively priced. Weather in major producing regions is seasonally hot but mostly non-disruptive so far, keeping yield expectations broadly stable. Overall, the market is balancing strong old-crop US export flow with comfortable global supply, resulting in a mildly supportive but not explosive price environment.

Prices

European corn prices show a slightly firmer tone in August. German feed-grade corn (EXW Drentwede) is indicated around EUR 0.292/kg (EUR 292/t), up from about EUR 0.256/kg at the end of July, marking a moderate recovery over the past three weeks. French FOB yellow corn from Paris is quoted near EUR 0.24–0.25/kg (EUR 240–250/t), only marginally below early August levels, suggesting a steady to mildly supportive regional trend.

Black Sea origins remain the low-cost benchmark. Ukrainian yellow feed corn from Odesa is offered near EUR 0.17/kg FCA and around EUR 0.167/kg FOB, highlighting continued price competition for EU and Mediterranean buyers. Processed and specialty corn products such as organic starch from India (around EUR 1.30/kg FOB New Delhi) and popcorn from Brazil and Argentina remain at significantly higher price points, but show limited short-term volatility.

Supply & Demand

US corn exports are closing the 2025/26 marketing year on an exceptionally strong note. For the week ending 13 August, export inspections reached about 1.9 million tonnes, up 8.6% from the previous week and 81.7% higher than the same week a year earlier. Cumulatively, roughly 81 million tonnes have been inspected since the start of the season, representing a 26.1% year-on-year increase and confirming a significantly faster shipment pace than in 2024/25.

This strong corn performance contrasts sharply with US soybeans. Weekly soybean inspections fell to around 270,000 tonnes, down one third from the previous week and more than 46% below the same week last year, leaving cumulative soybean shipments about 18% behind the prior season. The divergence underscores corn’s stronger export competitiveness and suggests continued support for corn demand in global feed channels as buyers diversify away from soymeal where possible.

Fundamentals & Weather

The latest US export inspection data underline that physical corn demand remains robust into the end of the marketing year, validating prior sales and tightening available old-crop exportable supplies. This strength helps offset the impact of generally comfortable global production prospects, preventing a deeper price correction even as harvest approaches in the Northern Hemisphere.

Weather across key corn-growing areas in the US and Europe is seasonally hot but, based on recent regional forecasts, not yet severely threatening yield potential. Above-normal temperatures dominate many US Corn Belt outlooks, while precipitation is mixed, with some pockets of dryness in parts of the Southern Plains. In Europe, conditions remain variable but without a clear, widespread stress signal at this stage, so markets are focusing more on demand and export flows than on major yield downgrades.

4–6 Week Market & Trading Outlook

• Price bias: With US export inspections running more than one quarter above last season and European cash prices firming modestly, the short-term bias for corn is cautiously upward to sideways rather than bearish.
• Risk factors: Any weather-driven yield concerns during late grain filling in the US or Eastern Europe, or logistical disruptions in Black Sea exports, could quickly tighten nearby availability and lift basis and flat prices.
• Downside drivers: If upcoming harvest results confirm broadly good yields and demand from major importers slows after heavy recent US buying, futures and cash markets could face pre-harvest pressure, especially for deferred positions.

Trading suggestions

• Feed buyers (EU): Consider layering in additional Q4 coverage on dips, especially where Black Sea offers undercut local markets, but retain some flexibility in case of harvest-related softness.
• Producers (US/EU): Use current firmness and strong US export performance to scale in new-crop hedges, focusing on incremental sales rather than aggressive forward selling.
• Traders: Monitor the US corn–soybean export spread; continued soybean weakness versus corn strength supports relative-value strategies favouring corn in feed and crush-linked spreads.

3-Day Regional Price & Directional Outlook

• Germany (EXW feed corn): Prices around EUR 290–295/t are expected to hold firm with a mild upward bias, supported by strong global demand and limited nearby farmer selling.
• France (FOB corn): Values near EUR 240–250/t likely trade sideways, with export competitiveness versus Black Sea origin capping upside.
• Black Sea (Ukraine FOB/FCA): Prices near EUR 165–180/t are expected to remain stable to slightly soft, maintaining their role as the main pressure point on world corn values.