US Corn Reclaims a Foothold in Bangladesh as Brazil’s Grip Loosens

The re-entry of US corn into Bangladesh after eight years is reshaping regional import dynamics, eroding Brazil’s once near-monopoly and setting up a more competitive three‑way contest with India. Bangladesh’s 2025‑26 corn imports surpassed 1.74 million tonnes, with Brazil still dominant but losing share to both India and new US volumes. The shift matters well beyond South Asia: it signals more diversified demand for Atlantic and Black Sea origins just as global futures prices ease from late‑September highs and South American weather risk starts to build again. For feed buyers, this means more origin choice, but also a more complex basis and freight matrix as exporters compete for a growing Asian demand hub.

Prices

Global corn futures have softened in recent sessions, with benchmark prices slipping from late‑September peaks on heavier-than-expected US stocks and early harvest pressure in the Northern Hemisphere. Nevertheless, values remain well above year‑ago levels, keeping export margins tight for many origins.

Physical quotations in Europe and the Black Sea are broadly stable to slightly softer. Recent indications from our own platform show Ukrainian feed-grade corn around Odesa at EUR 0.154/kg CPT and EUR 0.17/kg FCA, while German feed corn ex-Drentwede trades near EUR 0.285/kg EXW, slightly lower than late September levels. Indian organic corn starch FOB New Delhi is firm at EUR 1.32/kg, reflecting resilient premium demand in starch and specialty segments.

Supply & Demand

Bangladesh imported more than 1.74 million tonnes of corn in the 2025‑26 season, with Brazil providing 68%, India 24%, and the US around 6% (approximately 111,000 tonnes). This marks a dramatic change from the previous season, when Brazil supplied about 93% of Bangladesh’s corn imports and other origins played only marginal roles.

The US return improves origin diversification for a key Asian feed market, limiting single‑origin supply risk and giving Bangladeshi buyers more leverage in price negotiations. At the same time, strong domestic feed demand and expanding poultry and aquaculture sectors keep Bangladesh structurally dependent on imports, anchoring sustained regional demand for Brazilian, Indian and US corn across 2025‑26.

Globally, USDA has recently nudged 2025‑26 corn import projections for Bangladesh and several other emerging markets higher, reflecting robust feed demand and competitive export offers from major suppliers, including India after a strong harvest. This underpins trade flows into Asia even as US and South American crops look ample on paper.

Fundamentals & Competition for Bangladesh

Brazil remains the cornerstone supplier to Bangladesh but has ceded a significant portion of its market share, dropping from about 93% in the prior season to 68% in 2025‑26. India has consolidated its position at roughly 24%, helped by competitive prices, short shipping distances and efficient logistics into Chattogram.

The US, with around 6% share, has leveraged both attractive pricing and broader trade diplomacy to re‑enter the market. Recent USDA data and local press confirm that US corn secured a meaningful foothold after initial test cargos, and additional cargoes have followed. This sets the stage for a more three‑way competitive landscape, in which small shifts in freight, basis and currency can quickly swing tenders between Brazil, India and the US.

Looking ahead, price competitiveness, freight costs and feed-sector demand in Bangladesh will determine how sourcing shares evolve through the coming season. With global futures still elevated year‑on‑year, importers are highly sensitive to ocean freight and quality differentials, while exporters seek to optimize margins across multiple Asian destinations.

Weather & Crop Risks

Weather risk is increasingly centered on South America. Medium‑range forecasts highlight a persistent dry bias across western and northern Brazil into Q4 2026 and early 2027, raising concerns for safrinha corn in key producing states, while Argentina and southeast Brazil are expected to see cooler, wetter conditions in early October.

If dryness in northern Brazil intensifies or extends into critical reproductive stages, yield risk could tighten global export supplies in 2026‑27, particularly for Atlantic‑bound trade. For Bangladesh and other Asian buyers, such a scenario would likely increase reliance on Indian and US corn, reinforcing recent diversification trends and potentially supporting flat price and basis levels despite current futures softness.

Trading Outlook

• Bangladeshi feed buyers: Use the current window of softer global futures and steady Black Sea/EU physical prices to extend short‑term coverage, especially from Brazil and Ukraine, while keeping some flexibility to pivot between US and Indian offers as freight and basis move.
• Exporters in Brazil, India, US: Expect more aggressive tendering from Bangladesh as buyers arbitrage freight and quality; maintaining competitive FOB values and reliable shipment windows will be critical to defend or grow market share.
• European consumers: With German and French corn indications relatively stable and Black Sea values slightly under pressure, consider staggered purchases rather than front‑loading, but monitor South American weather closely for any early‑season risk premium.

3‑Day Price Direction (Key Hubs)

• CME/US futures: Mildly bearish to sideways over the next three sessions as the market digests larger‑than‑expected US stocks and ongoing harvest pressure, barring a sudden shift in South American weather headlines.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, feed corn): Slight downward bias or sideways as export programs remain active and logistics are functioning, keeping CPT/FCA quotations close to current levels.
• EU (Germany/France): Mostly stable, with modest downside risk in feed corn as local supply improves seasonally and competition from Black Sea offers caps rallies.