US–Iran Peace Framework Eases Hormuz Crisis but Maritime Risks Keep Energy, Food Markets on Alert

The initial US–Iran peace framework has reopened traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and eased immediate pressure on oil and shipping markets, but unresolved disputes over tolls, nuclear monitoring and regional security leave a fragile outlook for energy and food trade. An ongoing UN-led evacuation of 11,000 stranded seafarers underlines how far the region remains from normality.

Oil prices have eased back toward pre-war levels as tanker traffic gradually resumes, yet traders warn that any breakdown in talks, new security incidents or unilateral attempts by Iran to charge transit fees could quickly revive volatility across energy, fertilizer and grain supply chains linked to the Gulf.

Introduction

The United States and Iran have agreed to a temporary peace framework that includes a 60-day waiver of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Washington says the deal also features long-term nuclear inspections and restrictions on Iran’s use of previously frozen assets, but Tehran disputes those claims, insisting nuclear issues were not covered and that it will decide how to deploy unfrozen funds.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, normally handling about one-fifth of globally traded oil and gas. Months of conflict and attacks on shipping sharply curtailed traffic, stranding thousands of crew and disrupting flows of crude, petroleum products, LNG and nitrogen-based fertilizers crucial to global food production. Recent statements from the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) confirm a large-scale operation to evacuate around 11,000 seafarers now that a ceasefire is in place and a safe-transit framework has been agreed with Iran, the US, Oman and regional states.

Immediate Market Impact

Improved shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have already translated into softer crude benchmarks, with prices retreating toward levels seen before hostilities escalated, as renewed access to Iranian and other Gulf supplies alleviates fears of extended physical shortages. The 60-day US sanctions waiver allows Iran to sell oil and related products and receive payment, increasing available spot barrels in Asia and potentially Europe, depending on buyer risk appetite.

Nonetheless, maritime risk premia have not disappeared. The IMO notes that the evacuation of stranded vessels and crew is only beginning, and that safe passage remains dependent on strict adherence to coordinated transit corridors and deconfliction measures. Insurance costs, freight rates and route diversions via alternative pipelines out of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to remain elevated until traders are confident the ceasefire and shipping guarantees are durable.

Supply Chain Disruptions

The war and temporary closure of Hormuz resulted in severe congestion across the Gulf, with hundreds of vessels stranded and up to 11,000 seafarers now scheduled for evacuation. This backlog will take weeks to clear even under optimal conditions, delaying delivery schedules for crude, refined products, LNG and petrochemical feedstocks.

Key food and fertilizer importers in South and East Asia, as well as the Middle East and North Africa, have faced shipping delays and higher freight costs on cargoes sourced from Gulf producers. The resumption of traffic through a temporary corridor coordinated by Oman and the IMO should gradually normalize flows, but with corridor capacity constrained and ongoing clearance operations, port schedules at loading and discharge terminals are expected to remain volatile in the near term.

Commodities Potentially Affected

• Crude oil and condensates – Directly impacted by Hormuz closures and reopenings; Iranian and other Gulf exports are resuming under the 60-day waiver, pressuring prices downward but keeping risk premia in freight and insurance elevated.
• Refined oil products (diesel, gasoline, jet) – Supply from Gulf refineries into Asia, Africa and Europe was disrupted by earlier shipping attacks and is now normalizing, which could ease product cracks and regional price spikes if flows remain stable.
• LNG and LPG – Qatar and other Gulf exporters rely heavily on Hormuz; any renewed restrictions would tighten gas balances in Asia and Europe, with knock-on effects on power costs for fertilizer production and food processing.
• Nitrogen fertilizers (urea, ammonia, UAN) – Gulf states are major nitrogen exporters; earlier disruptions constrained supply and lifted prices, particularly in Asia and Latin America. As shipping resumes, traders anticipate improved availability, though contract performance risks persist until the corridor proves reliable.
• Vegetable oils and oilseeds – Indirect impact via freight costs and energy-linked production costs; any renewed spike in bunker fuel or tanker rates would filter into landed costs for palm oil, soy oil and sunflower oil shipped to and from the wider Middle East region.

Regional Trade Implications

Should the peace framework hold, Middle Eastern exporters of oil, gas and fertilizers stand to regain lost market share in Asia and Europe as cargoes flow more freely through Hormuz. Iran, in particular, could boost exports in the short term under the sanctions waiver, though conflicting US–Iran statements on long-term terms and asset use may limit longer-horizon deals.

Conversely, alternative suppliers that benefited from the crisis—such as US crude and LNG exporters, West African oil producers and nitrogen fertilizer plants in North America and Russia—may see some demand shift back to Gulf origins as freight risk declines. Import-dependent economies like India, China, Japan and South Korea are likely to diversify supply further, balancing renewed Gulf access with continued procurement from alternative routes to hedge against future chokepoint disruptions.

Market Outlook

In the near term, the market focus will remain on the implementation of the 60-day sanctions waiver, the pace of the IMO-led evacuation and decongestion of stranded vessels, and any move by Iran to test the limits of the agreement through proposed tolls or tighter control over shipping lanes. Traders will also watch developments in Lebanon and the wider region, where renewed clashes could spill over into maritime security narratives.

Volatility in energy and fertilizer benchmarks is likely to persist, with downside pressure from returning supply tempered by geopolitical risk premia. For agricultural markets, improved availability of nitrogen fertilizers and lower bunker fuel costs would be broadly bearish for production costs in the 2026–27 season, but buyers should maintain contingency plans for rerouting cargoes and managing basis risk in case negotiations falter.

CMB Market Insight

The tentative US–Iran peace framework has shifted the Hormuz narrative from acute disruption toward cautious normalization, easing immediate fears around energy and fertilizer shortages that underpin global food systems. Yet the scale of the evacuation effort and the unresolved political disagreements highlight how fragile this stability remains.

Commodity traders, importers and food industry buyers should treat the current easing in prices and freight as an opportunity to rebuild inventories and secure supply on flexible terms, rather than a signal that chokepoint risk has disappeared. Strategic diversification of origins and routes, continued monitoring of Gulf security and close attention to sanctions implementation will be essential to managing exposure as the region transitions from war to an uncertain peace.