US Pistachios: Record Kernel Shipments Meet Tight Late-Season Supply

US pistachio kernel shipments are running at record levels in 2025/26, rapidly drawing down marketable stocks and setting the stage for a tighter balance as the industry moves toward a smaller off-year crop in 2026/27. Despite still-elevated adjusted inventories on paper, the supply actually available to the spot market is shrinking, supporting a firm to slightly bullish price outlook into the new harvest. The current on-year crop has enabled US handlers to sustain strong domestic and export shipments, with season-to-date volumes through June up nearly 6% versus last year and close to 21% above the five-year average. This robust offtake is eroding uncommitted inventory, while forward sales and planned carryover further constrain the effective supply cushion. In Europe, organic pistachio prices in EUR appear broadly stable but at historically elevated levels, reflecting both strong kernel demand and expectations for a significantly smaller US crop in 2026/27.

Prices

Recent European offers for organic pistachios in mid-July 2026 show stable but firm levels in EUR, consistent with a market that is well-supplied on paper yet increasingly tight in spot availability. Italian organic kernels are indicated around EUR 68.95/kg FOB, Spanish organic green kernels near EUR 41.75/kg FOB, and US organic in-shell product about EUR 22.03/kg FOB, with no visible softening over the past month.

External quotes for conventional US product into Europe also signal firmness, with FCA Netherlands levels around the high teens per kg in EUR for whole kernels, underlining that buyers are already pricing in a tighter 2026/27 supply outlook. Producer price index data for US farm-gate pistachios likewise remains elevated, confirming structural strength along the value chain.

Supply & Demand

Through June, US pistachio kernel shipments in 2025/26 reached 107.2 million gross pounds, a record level for this point in the season. This represents a 5.9% increase versus 2024/25, 9.5% above the previous on-year season in 2023/24, and 20.9% above the five-year average, underscoring sustained demand across both domestic and export channels.

Adjusted kernel inventory at end-June stood at 154.8 million gross pounds, up 3.8% month on month and 10.8% year on year, largely reflecting ongoing shelling of remaining in-shell stocks. However, marketable kernel inventory – the volume effectively available to meet near-term demand – fell sharply by 10.4% month on month to 47.6 million gross pounds, as strong shipments outpaced new processing.

Marketable closed-shell stocks fell 15.4% to 49 million in-shell pounds, while shelling stock declined 18.2% to 23.7 million pounds. Combined potential kernel supply capacity, including finished kernels and convertible raw material, dropped 12.9% from May to 80.3 million gross pounds. Industry participants also indicate that a portion of these remaining supplies is already forward sold or earmarked as carryover into 2026/27, further tightening effective availability.

Recent shipment updates from the Administrative Committee for Pistachios corroborate this picture: monthly shipments remain well above year-ago levels as demand holds firm, especially in key export markets, while late-season inventories continue to trend lower. Globally, expectations for a significantly smaller 2026/27 crop suggest world production could fall to a multi-year low, reinforcing the importance of remaining US stocks.

Fundamentals

Total US industry crop receipts for 2025/26 remain estimated at 1.593 billion in-shell-equivalent pounds, confirming the current season as a strong on-year in the alternate bearing cycle. Yet the rapid drawdown in marketable kernels and closed-shell stocks shows that supply is being absorbed efficiently rather than accumulating in burdensome carryover.

Handlers are reported to be managing inventories cautiously in anticipation of a smaller off-year harvest in 2026/27. Recent market intelligence points to preliminary ideas that the upcoming California crop could be markedly below the 2025 record, although exact figures remain uncertain. This forward-looking supply risk encourages both handlers and large buyers to secure volumes early, supporting firm pricing even as headline inventories appear comfortable.

Trading liquidity in the kernel segment is described as limited, with secondary-market supplies available but actual trades relatively subdued ahead of the 2026 harvest. This behavior is consistent with an industry prioritizing coverage of contracted business and strategic carryover over aggressive spot selling, effectively tightening the free float of product in the market.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather in California’s Central Valley – the core US pistachio region – has been broadly supportive of tree development so far this season, with irrigation guidance and evapotranspiration reports indicating normal management rather than acute stress. However, there is ongoing analytical focus on whether winter chill hours were sufficient across all orchards, as some areas may have received less than ideal dormancy conditions, potentially impacting yields in localized blocks.

Beyond California, global production prospects for 2026/27 are expected to be weaker, with forecasts pointing to total output dropping below 1 million tonnes for the first time in several years. Combined with a US off-year cycle, this suggests that any weather-related setbacks during the remainder of the growing season could have an outsized impact on the already tightening global supply-demand balance.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

Key strategic signals

• Bias: mildly bullish – Record US kernel shipments and declining marketable inventories, combined with expectations for a smaller 2026/27 crop, argue for a firm to slightly higher price trajectory into the new marketing year.
• For buyers: Consider extending coverage modestly ahead of the 2026 harvest, especially for high-spec kernels, as spot liquidity is limited and forward-sold volumes are rising. Staggered purchases may help manage upside risk while avoiding over-commitment at current elevated levels.
• For sellers/handlers: Maintaining disciplined offer strategies appears justified. With inventories tightening and global production set to fall, selectively prioritizing premium markets and value-added segments should support margins.
• For industrial users: Explore specification flexibility (e.g., origin mix, whole vs. pieces) where possible to mitigate potential price spikes or availability gaps in late 2026 and early 2027.

3-day directional indication (EUR-based)

• EU organic kernels (IT, ES): Prices expected to hold firm in the next three days, with limited downside given strong US fundamentals and no sign of increased offers.
• US-origin in-shell to Europe: Stable to slightly firmer, reflecting tight late-season US marketable inventories and supportive FCA quotations.
• Overall pistachio complex: Sideways-to-firm in EUR terms in the very short run, with more pronounced upside risk concentrated around the 2026 harvest and early 2026/27 marketing period.